Canada v Chile Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Canada v Chile
Kick Off: Sunday 30th June, 01:00
Competition: Copa America
Watch Live: Premier Sports 2
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It’s all to play for on in matchday three of Group A in the Copa America, with Canada and Chile facing off at the Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The equation is simple: the winner will go through to the quarter-finals. In the case of a draw, it will be the Canucks who progress unless Peru cause a monumental upset against Argentina. For the losing side, there is no way back.
As such, this encounter promises to be a thrilling one, with Copa America debutants Canada seeking a run to the knockout stages that would more than justify their inclusion in the competition for the first time.
Match stats: Canada well placed to cause an upset
Canada may start in pole position in the race between these nations, but in the bookmakers’ eyes, they are the outsiders, priced at 3.6 to get the victory. This can be justified by their recent form. Across their last nine matches, they have suffered five defeats and have picked up only three wins. Those successes came against Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and last time out against Peru.
Chile’s form has hardly been stellar, though. They have won only three of their last 12, while they have picked up only two competitive victories since a three-match win streak ended in November 2021. That’s a run of 13 outings in total. The truly worrying signs for the South Americans come in the xG bracket. They have fashioned just 1.1xG across their two Copa America fixtures to date while conceding 3.5xG.
Compare this to Canada, who have offered 3xG scored across their two matches, even mustering 1.2xG against Argentina. They have been leakier defensively at 3.7xG, but not significantly. Interestingly, Canada have only had one additional shot to Chile but have been getting into substantially better areas to score from. Their xG per shot is the highest in the Copa America at the time of writing at 0.2. Chile’s is a meagre 0.08.
Neither has been strong at shutting down their opponents. Only Jamaica (42) and Bolivia (38) have given up more shots than Chile (29) and Canada (13). Equally, don’t expect corners from these teams. While Canada have won five, Chile have claimed only three – the joint-second lowest figure in the competition.
The value is on Canada to progress given their superior defensive record to date and Chile’s lack of winning habit, while the defensive inefficiencies of both suggest goals could arrive.
Prediction:
Canada (+1) @ 1.62
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.25
Shot stats: David and Alexis carry the threat
Canada have mustered only four shots on target so far in the Copa America, with these spread between four different players. Jonathan David is the scorer of their sole goal in the competition to date but their best performers in terms of xG lie elsewhere. Cyle Larin has had three shots (none on target) for 0.7xG while Tani Oluwaseyi has played only nine minutes but had two shots, including one off target, for 0.8xG.
David’s status as the danger man is underlined by the fact that he has been fouled nine times, a tally which no one in the competition can better. With 27 goals across 50 caps, it is unsurprising he is the big threat and is 3.75 to score anytime and 1.67 to hit the target with a shot, which looks good value given he has 1.47 shots per 90 at club level with Lille.
The Canucks’ most prolific shooters, meanwhile, have been Larin and Alphonso Davies, neither of whom have worked the opposing goalkeeper from their three tries. Chile’s shots are curiously similar to Canada’s in that they have two players out in front on three efforts, none of which have found the net. Their leading protagonists are Alexis Sanchez and Victor Davila.
Alexis is the only player in the Chile team who has been taking particularly worthwhile efforts. He has amassed 0.6xG from his three efforts while no one else has accumulated more than 0.2. Marcelino Nunez, for example, has had two shots (both on target) worth a total of 0.04xG. Along with Rodrigo Echeverria, he is the only Chilean player to find the target.
Indeed, Chile have yet to score, which is concerning ahead of a must-win game. Look for Ben Brereton-Diaz to get more minutes if they are in trouble. He has played only half an hour so far but has amassed two shots in that period.
Predictions:
Jonathan David to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.67
Alexis Sanchez to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.57
Foul stats: David set for another bruising game
When it comes to drawing fouls, David has been the ace in the Copa America to date, with nine offences committed against him across two games. He was fouled four times by Argentina and then five more against Peru. His price of 2.2 to pick up a couple of free kicks in this encounter is, therefore, outrageously high.
This is no fluke. In Ligue 1 this season, he picked up 1.92 fouls per 90 and in his six years as a professional has never dipped below 1.51 fouls won per 90. Adding fuel to this bet is the fact that Chile’s centre-backs Igor Lichnovsky and Paulo Diaz have combined for seven fouls across the two fixtures to date. David should expect a bruising encounter, then.
Eduardo Vargas is the most prolific fouler in the Chile side, meanwhile. He has given up six free kicks in total, including three in each game. He is 2.7 to do so again, but 1.57 on two fouls or more is arguably better value given he is not a prolific criminal at club level.
Remarkably, no Canada player has given up more than three free kicks in the first two matchdays. David, Stephen Eustaquio, Alistair Johnston and Larin have all committed two offences. Indeed, Canada are generally a cleaner side than their opponents. They have given up only 23 free kicks, which compares to the 31 fouls committed by Chile. Equally, the North Americans have only three cards to their credit while Chile have five.
Predictions:
Jonathan David to be fouled 2 times or more @ 2.2
Eduardo Vargas to commit 2 fouls or more @ 1.57
Chile to receive most cards @ 2.6
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Peter G. Aiken / Getty Images / Andy Jacobsohn / AFP