Manchester United, the team who previously were the dominating force of English football have slowly declined post the Sir Alex Ferguson era and have of late dropped to the lowest of lows for as long as most of us can even recall. After a humiliating 4-0 loss away at Brentford, I started to look at where it all went wrong.

Of course, everyone has an option and most say it’s from the top of the tree and then you have some that say recruitment has been poor. Even with manager Erik ten Hag coming in from Ajax which gave the United fans some hope, some argue that even he has got it wrong so early on bringing in the likes of Lisandro Martinez as a centre-back who aerially will get dominated. Do we blame Ten Hag already, are people above controlling the transfers..there is so much we can ask.

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In this piece, I will be acting as a recruitment analysis and using statistical data to make a shortlist of at least 3 players per outfield position. I will be using Wyscout as my data source and identifying potential targets for the club from the top 5 leagues in Europe.

Before we get into the data analysis review, I wanted to point out some factors which have to be understood throughout this piece.

• I cannot shortlist players from rival clubs or teams in Europe who are currently in the Champions League as most of the players from these clubs would be less keen on joining the club at present
• I cannot shortlist players who have since moved onto other clubs or were already had an agreement in place (as we are using data from last season)
• The stats shown does not indicate that certain players are better than others, this is just based on the particular metrics selected and restricting the view to not include the above as much as possible
• Looking at outfield players aged between 18-27 in the top 5 European Leagues

So, now that I have set the agenda, we can start to delve into the analysis which was carried out and more.

Data Analysis Review Per Position

In this section, I will be presenting the data analysis which has been performed per position by using key metrics which would be key per position. I have factored into account the work rate of these players, as although there is no real metric for work rate as such, we can use metrics such as duels per game.

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These can be defensive and even offensive duels, which will give the player a bit more of a better profile and will help make the shortlisting per position with this in mind. In addition, with the use of data from FBRef, we will be recording pressures and recoveries per shortlisted player.

• Pressure = Number of times applying pressure to opposition player who is receiving, carrying, or releasing the ball
• Recovery = Number of loose balls recovered during the previous season

Finally, we need to also bear in mind the tactical system Ten Hag plays and there will be certain attributes that need to be looked into more than others such as passing and movement.

For this particular piece, we will keep most positions as standard however, we will have the two central midfielders more attacking and leaving the CDM as the protector for the backline, whilst the full backs push up. We will not go with a false 9 on this piece however, from the shortlisting, we can even find one to fit it if required.

Right Backs

Top 3 Shortlist

• Fabien Centonze – The 26-year-old Metz defender ranked high for his interception rate as well as his offensive duels. According to Fbref, Centonze recorded 14.4 pressures & 128 recoveries, and with a contract through 2024, he could be available on the cheap following Les Grenats’ relegation.

• Valentin Rongier – The 27-year-old ranked high for his accurate passes along with passes to final 3rd. According to Fbref, Rongier recorded 20.4 pressures & 216 recoveries, although it should be noted that the Marseille man is nominally a central midfielder.

• Morten Frendrup – After making the switch from Denmark to Italy last year, Morten Frendrup impressed for Genoa despite the club’s relegation and was ranked high for his defensive duels and successful defensive actions. According to Fbref, the 21-year-old recorded 25.9 pressures & 118 recoveries.

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 3 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Left Backs

Top 3 Shortlist

• Ramy Bensebaini – Borussia Monchengladbach’s Algerian defender was ranked high for his successful defensive actions. According to Fbref, the 27-year-old recorded 9.94 pressures & 242 recoveries.
• Maximilian Mittelstädt – Hertha Berlin’s German left back was ranked high for his interceptions and passes to final 3rd. According to Fbref, the 25-year-old recorded 19.7 pressures & 136 recoveries.
• Luke Thomas – Leicester City’s English defender was ranked high for his defensive duels. According to Fbref, the 21-year-old recorded 18.0 pressures & 192 recoveries.

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 3 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Center Backs

Top 5 Shortlisted

• Duje Ćaleta-Car –Marseille’s Croatian defender ranked high for his aerial duels won and receiving passes. According to Fbref, Ćaleta-Car recorded 4.5 pressures & 250 recoveries

• Mohamed Simakan – RB Leipzig’s versatile French defender ranked high for receiving passes. According to Fbref, Simakan recorded 12.9 pressures & 250 recoveries

• Sinaly Diomandé – Lyon’s Ivorian center back ranked high for his accurate passing. According to Fbref, Diomande recorded 5.9 pressures & 112 recoveries

• Nikola Milenković– Fiorentina’s Serbian defender ranked high for his aerial duels. According to Fbref, Milenković recorded 8.86 pressures & 346 recoveries

• Boubacar Kouyaté – The Malian defender suffered relegation with Metz alongside Centonze and co. but nevertheless ranked for his successful defensive actions and interceptions. According to Fbref, Kouyate recorded 12.9 pressures & 256 recoveries

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 5 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Central Defensive Midfielders

Top 3 Shortlisted

• Fran Beltran – The 23-year-old Madrid native ranked high for receiving passes and accurate passing. According to Fbref, Beltran recorded 20.0 pressures & 331 recoveries for Celta Vigo.

• Renato Tapia – Beltrán’s Peruvian teammate ranked high for his interceptions and duels won over the past campaign under Eduardo Coudet. According to Fbref, Tapia recorded 21.2 pressures & 196 recoveries

• Ander Guevara – The 25-year-old Spanish midfielder ranked high for his progressive passes. According to Fbref, Guevara recorded 21.07 pressures & 116 recoveries for Real Sociedad.

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 3 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Central Midfielders

Top 3 Shortlisted

• Stanislav Lobotka – Napoli’s 27-year-old Slovakian midfielder ranked high for his accurate passing and duels won. According to Fbref, Lobotka recorded 17.4 pressures & 164 recoveries.

• Rúben Neves – Wolves’ Portuguese midfielder ranked high for his interceptions, progressive passes and successful defensive actions. According to Fbref, Neves recorded 17.7 pressures & 311 recoveries.

• Fabián – Lobotka’s Spanish teammate at Napoli ranked high for his passes to final 3rd. According to Fbref, Fabián recorded 17.9 pressures & 227 recoveries.

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 3 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Wingers

Top 3 Shortlisted

• Javi Ontiveros – The 24-year-old Spanish winger ranked high for his duels won. Note – This player actually plays for Villareal’s B team, therefore although he showed up well on the stats, we have to go with the players who have actually played in the competitive top 5 leagues and not the B team. This is an example of where data does not reveal all about a player.

• Domenico Berardi – Sassuolo’s attacking talisman ranked high for his assists, goals, key passes as well as shots per game. According to Fbref, Berardi recorded 17.4 pressures & 207 recoveries

• Lucas Paqueta – West Ham’s incoming Brazilian playmaker ranked high for his accurate passes as well as through passes per 90. According to Fbref, Paqueta recorded 23.3 pressures & 235 recoveries

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 3 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Forwards

Top 3 Shortlisted

• André Silva – RB Leipzig’s Portuguese striker ranked high for goals, shots per 90 and shots on target plus touches in box per 90. According to Fbref, Silva recorded 13.0 pressures & 107 recoveries,

• Saša Kalajdziç – Stuttgart’s Austrian forward ranked high for his duels won. According to Fbref, Kalajdzc recorded 17.6 pressures & 55 recoveries

• Amine Gouri – Nice’s French striker ranked high for his assists and successful attacking actions. According to Fbref, Gouiri recorded 14.0 pressures & 146 recoveries.

Below, we can see an overall comparison between the 3 shortlisted players using some of the key metrics for the playing position. 

Outfield Shortlist Number 1 Targets

Based on the above analysis, the below is the first priority targets per position. Where there is a number 1, this will be first priority and then 2 for 2nd priority if the first fails for whatever reason.

In this section, there will more of a thought process put behind these selections rather than just selecting the best choice by data. We also need to bear in mind that some statistics are higher or lower depending on the team’s tactical setup, for example, some managers want their teams to press more, so this is where you will be higher figures on pressures, however, doesn’t indicate that a certain player is overall a good fit just by a few metrics, this is decided as an overall piece.   

The first-choice players were mainly selected due to the following:

• Based on the shortlist comparison made and identifying who is more likely to have a higher work rate 

• If the player will be participating in the champions league, then I will look for alternatives first as Manchester United will be in the Europa League this season, so the attraction is less than it was previously. For example, although Fabian was the natural first choice based on some metrics, I went with Neves as Fabian will either favour a move to a bigger club or stay to play CL.

• On the other hand, Andre Silva was selected as 1st priority despite his team playing in the CL. The reason behind going for Silva first is because he is way ahead statistically and was matching up well in certain metrics against some of the best strikers currently out there. 

Conclusion

As a reminder, this piece was not a wish list recruitment piece, this was heavily backed by data analysis initially. From the first choices made, I would then expect scouts to review these players in more detail before looking to progress any further. 

I believe some of the options picked are realistic targets and would for sure strengthen the current side. For example, just by adding the spine of Nikola Milenkovic, Ruben Neves & Andre Silva would be a huge boost alone as according to the data, they would bring a lot to the team, from solid work at the back, creativity and work rate in the middle and goals up top.

Manchester United look set to add to their summer splurge with the signing of Antony from Ajax, and after completing deals for the Brazilian winger, Lisandro Martínez, Christian Eriksen, Tyrell Malacia, Casemiro, they could be set for a few more big signings in the final three days of the transfer window.

By: Dhillon Gill /@_iamdhillon

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / picture alliance