UEFA Coefficient Roundup: Qualifying Week 6

The penultimate round of qualifying came to an end last week, with 30 more teams being eliminated from Europe. That played a key role in the five-year UEFA coefficient rankings, where several battles are in play. How many of these races will continue to the league phase will largely depend on how the playoff round goes.

With several conclusions to be had, here is a look at where things stand in the UEFA coefficient rankings, and what is at stake for the last two weeks of the summer.

Battle for 50th: Georgia Enjoy Important Result

We start at the bottom of the rankings, where three nations are looking to avoid that final spot in the bottom five. All three of Gibraltar, Northern Ireland, and Georgia had their last team in the Europa League third qualifying round. More crucially, there was a direct clash between the latter two nations. Win, and league phase football is guaranteed. Lose, and another direct duel awaits in the UEFA Conference League.

Iberia 1999 gave Georgia a massive win against Larne, securing group phase football 22 years after Dinamo Tbilisi did so. That also saw the Eurasian country jump ahead of Northern Ireland for 50th spot. Lincoln Red Imps also suffered elimination in the UEL, setting up a vital meeting with Larne. Remarkably, Georgia are not safe yet.

This battle will be decided if Larne do not pick up at least 0.250 points (a win or two draws) from their playoff round clash. If Iberia 1999 can earn at least 0.375 points (a win and a draw) from their UEL tie, then that will also end this race.

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The Lincoln Red Imps vs Larne tie among the biggest of the summer, and should decide who will claim 50th spot. Keep a very close eye on this result over the next two Thursdays.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Kosovo, Latvia Have Small Hope

It has been a rather disappointing race for top 33/top 38 in the UEFA coefficient ranking, as we are set to see no significant changes at season's end.

Ireland had another poor week as Shamrock Rovers fell out of the UEL. That leaves them in a situation where they could have no teams come the league phase. Kosovo, Bosnia, and now Latvia are the trio chasing the Irish and Armenia for 32nd and 33rd. Even Finland can dream of going as high as 33rd. Shamrock and KuPS Kuopio will face off as well in the UECL, which could be decisive.

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Armenia have a massive advantage of having their team secure league phase football. Ararat-Armenia's UEL playoff tie is in essence a free hit, though they could give themselves two more games in the UEL proper should they advance. Regardless, they can keep an eye of what goes on around them.

Latvia are now 35th despite failing to grab a win last week. They did lose two teams, but given the work done this summer, they can certainly dream of 33rd. If Riga FC can prevail in the UECL playoff, that could end up being pivotal.

Liechtenstein and Moldova are out of Europe, leaving just the Faroe Islands left to try and take down Kazakhstan for 38th place. That will be decided by KÍ Klaksvík, who will look to keep their nation in Europe. Win, and there can be hope. Otherwise, we will have our top 38. Kairat Almaty have league phase football under their belts, and can just try to place it beyond doubt.

A battle for 33rd could very well break out after next week, or it could be over. Four countries have the shot to keep this going, or it could be a premature end to what is one of the biggest races in the UEFA coefficient ranking.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Croatia Impress

The one battle that is hard to decipher at this point is the race for 22nd. After all, five countries in this race are down to just one team left, which is not promising, and four more could join them in that regard.

Austria and Scotland have the biggest advantage at this point, seeing they both have their full complement of teams. They are the lowest ranked nations that can make such a claim. However, things could go sideways for the Scottish seeing they only have one guaranteed league phase place at the moment. Austria have three, and as a result could be well and truly clear from this battle quite soon.

Croatia and Israel had the best week of the lot as the duo were the only ones to earn more than 0.500 points. The former went unbeaten as well, which is always welcomed. If they can even get one of Hajduk Split or Rijeka in the UECL proper, that should be enough to place them in the top 22.

In the UEFA coefficient season preview, we noted the importance of having multiple league phase teams. It is not outside the realms of possibility that only two or three countries here manage to achieve that. Then it comes down to either making the UCL proper - something the majority can still do - and/or getting past a league phase.

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Hungary are, by far, the highest ranked country to see their domestic champion be eliminated already. Had it not been for Ferencváros successfully negotiating three rounds of UEL qualifying, they would likely be done already. Sweden are also down to one team after losing two more sides on Thursday. Romania and Ukraine also joined them on that front, with the latter now idle until the league phase begins.

Azerbaijan, who were never expected to battle it out for top 22, could end up being involved if both Sabah and Qarabağ can win their playoff round ties. The 1.500 bonus points the former could bring would shoot them up the rankings. However, that can already be said about many of the countries above them.

Serbia and Iceland have quite a lot of work to do if they are to end up in the top 29. The Serbs still have multiple teams left, while the Nordic nation are in a do-or-die situation. Víkingur Reykjavík's UECL tie could end their hopes of finishing higher than 31st, or it could prolong the battle. If Slovan Bratislava and Levski Sofia win their UCL playoff round ties, it will be over though.

Quality has not fully been there in this race for 22nd/29th, but there will be a lot more decided after the playoff round.

Battle for 14th: Norway Take Huge Step

There was a key development in the race for 14th, as Cyprus lost another team. More importantly, it came against a direct rival, with Norway's Brann knocking out Apollon Limassol in the UECL.

Denmark and Norway had awesome weeks, and can still rely on their full complement of sides heading to the playoff round. However, the Norwegians are in the best position at the moment when considering the number of league phase places already guaranteed. For perspective, their three places are more than the Danes and Cypriots combined (one each).

Cyprus are already in trouble though, seeing they are down to just two sides. That is highly problematic, and puts serious pressure on Pafos to make the UECL proper. Fail to do so, and that almost surely leaves them doomed. In fact, they could even drop out of the top 15.

Similarly, Denmark could have a wonderful two weeks, or a disastrous one - there is no middle ground. Losing more than one team here would be an utter embarrassment. There will not be any bonus points coming their way, but heading to the league phase with a full complement of teams would be huge.

Norway are in a spot where they could earn a ton of points over the next two weeks. Sure, Brann and Tromsø making the UECL league phase would be very ideal. But, due to the situation around them, it is not required, especially if Viking and/or Bodø/Glimt can win the UCL bonus points.

So, the UCL and UECL playoff rounds should play a key role here. Bonus points, and having as many teams in the league phase as possible, are critical. With that in mind, follow what the eight teams involved in either do, as that can really be a difference-maker in this battle.

Battle for Top 10: Czechia, Greece With Power Play

To the most thrilling race, the one for ninth/10th. We saw another country lose a team here after Poland saw GKS Katowice fall. It is not disastrous yet, but still not a wonderful feeling.

However, the Poles earned the most points last week, helping them jump ahead of Czechia into 10th. Their 0.800 points match what the other three nations managed, combined. That is great and all, but the other three might be the more satisfied of the lot. After all, Türkiye secured a fourth league phase place, while Czechia and Greece have their full complement of clubs left.

Poland may be 10th right now, but they could be down to two teams for the league phase. That would be far from ideal. The Czechs and Greeks have three assured, with at least one of them sure to have four, or even all five. This is due to Hradec Králové facing Panathinaikos in one of the most significant ties of the summer. Jablonec and PAOK will also have the chance to put their nations in a strong position by qualifying for the UECL proper.

The Turks could have a second UCL spot through Fenerbahçe, while Greece will be hoping AEK Athens can get them the much-needed bonus points as well. There are so many variables at play here. However, the UECL playoff round will be the decider.

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For the exception of Poland with four, the other three countries will have three sides involved across the various playoff round ties. Türkiye are the only ones without a UECL team at the moment, which could be a blessing in disguise.

All eyes have to be on the tie between Hradec Králové and Panathinaikos, as that will play an instrumental role in finding out who claims 10th. If either Greece or Czechia can end up with five league phase teams, the rest better watch out.

A Look at Everyone Else

Finally, we look at the remaining countries that were involved last week. Four more of them said goodbye to European football for the season after the latest matches.

North Macedonia, Belarus, Estonia, and San Marino are now left without clubs, with two having a rather solid year and the other two left disappointed. The Belorussians and Estonians earned more than 2.000 points, which is commendable work and something to build on in future years. North Macedonia would probably have wanted a bit more, especially after Shkëndija's exploits last term. Nothing is surprising about San Marino's showing.

Albania and Lithuania will have league phase football to enjoy, while Andorra are on the cusp of history. Inter Club d'Escaldes' convincing UECL Q3 win has them one round away from going farther than any other club in their country have done prior. It is now a matter of trying to make the most of it.

Switzerland have all four clubs left, with one securing at least UECL football in the fall. The problem is, the other three are in do-or-die situations, meaning they could either claw their way into a race for 15th by the end of qualifying, or be left ruing their chances at a very good season. St. Gallen, Lugano, and Sion have a ton of pressure on themselves.

France and Netherlands saw their UCL qualifying representatives advance, while Belgium's team faltered. That has little impact at the moment. Portugal had two draws from their teams, which were certainly unexpected. The Dutch are the only ones in the top eight that could lose multiple teams before the league phase if things go south.

With the top four nations joining the fray in the playoff round, watch out for what the top eight nations do as they will want to head into the league phase with an advantage in the battle for the European Performance spots.