Ballon d’Or: Will Mbappé Finally Get His Hands on the Prestigious Award?
The French superstar has achieved what most footballers can only dream of. The one thing missing is the Ballon d’Or. With the winner revealed tonight in London, does Kylian Mbappé have a shot?
Tonight at the London Palladium, football crowns the winner of the 70th Ballon d'Or. One of the sport's most decorated players is still waiting for the prize that has eluded him. At 27, Kylian Mbappé has a World Cup win as a teenager in 2018, a hat-trick in the 2022 final, and a starring role at Real Madrid. With Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane also among the favourites, how good are his chances?
25/26 Season: Mbappe’s Run of Form
On pure output, few players can argue with him. In 2025-26, Mbappé was the top scorer in La Liga with 25 goals and in the Champions League with 15. At the World Cup, he added 10 more, winning a second Golden Boot and becoming the tournament’s all-time leading scorer with 22 goals. He is the first player to win the Golden Boot at two World Cups.
The underlying data backs him up. Among players in Europe’s top five leagues with at least 1,500 minutes, Mbappé posted 0.68 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, ahead of Harry Kane’s 0.63, according to analysis from The Analyst. He also secured a total of 42 goals for club in 44 appearances.
Ballon d’Or: His Shortcomings
Speaking on 7 September, Kylian Mbappé said this could be the year he finally wins the Ballon d'Or. However, not everyone agrees. Several Spanish outlets have tipped Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal to finish ahead of the Frenchman, and some prominent figures like Jorge Mendes, Zlatan Ibrahimović, and Samuel Eto'o are rooting for the Spaniard. But why would a lot of football lovers not back the Frenchman?
1. No Major Trophy
Real Madrid finished second in La Liga behind Barcelona, and Mbappé ended the season without a major trophy. A knee injury also disrupted part of his campaign. While a lot of Ballon d’Or voters consider individual brilliance strongly, team success has often tipped close races.
2. Failed to Win the World Cup
Unfortunately, France couldn’t bag the World Cup, finishing just 4th in the competition. Although the Frenchman had a great tournament, breaking records, and finishing as the highest goalscorer. But is that enough?
One recent analysis points to a pattern in 16 World Cup years: voters tend to reward the winners, or the players closest to them. Sadly, his team finished 4th! Spain, however, went on to lift the trophy, with Lamine Yamal among their stars.
3. Hard Luck
Kylian hasn’t had the best of luck in the pursuit of this award. His best finish so far is third, back in 2023 during his Paris Saint-Germain days. This season, he has been open about wanting the award, even hitting back at critics by pointing to his goal tally.
Other Favorites: Kane and Yamal
Harry Kane scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, won the Bundesliga, and added six World Cup goals as England enjoyed their best finish since 1966. Many outlets now list Kane as the favourite, and a Marca panel ranked him first among the players of 2025-26, with Yamal second and Mbappé third.
Yamal, still only 19, won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain, which gives him the strongest team-success argument in the field. He was also runner-up in the 2025 voting. Lionel Messi, who reached the World Cup final, is another outside contender.
Does Kylian Have a Shot?
The big question ahead of tomorrow is "Can the Real Madrid man secure this?” Yes, but he is probably not the favourite. Some prediction polls across Europe have shifted repeatedly, and the latest reports put Kane narrowly in front, with Yamal and Mbappé close behind. If voters prioritise individual dominance, Mbappé’s case is as strong as anyone’s. If they all remain centered on trophies, Kane and Yamal hold the edge.
The winner will be revealed at the London Palladium tonight, with the ceremony starting at 20:00 GMT. Whatever happens, Mbappé is only 27 and will surely have more opportunities in the future.