The Race for the MLS Golden Boot: Who Will Finish on Top?
More than 1,243 goals have been scored in the MLS league this season, averaging approximately 3.21 goals per match. With seven matches to be played, it will be interesting to see who emerges as the season's top scorer.
The 2026 MLS season has been filled with intrigue, from the high-profile signings of Casemiro, Lewandowski, Griezmann, and other global stars to an exciting, free-flowing style of football that has produced a flurry of goals. More than 1,243 goals have been scored in the MLS league this season, averaging approximately 3.21 goals per match. According to available statistics, over 63% of MLS matches have produced more than 2.5 goals, while just 37% have finished with fewer.
At the center of this flurry of goals is ‘Lionel Messi’, who has netted 21 goals in 24 appearances. Next on the list is Petar Musa, the FC Dallas forward, who has 18 goals and is determined to close the three-goal gap. With seven matches remaining, can the Croatian striker produce a late surge to snatch the Golden Boot from Messi, or will another contender emerge as a surprise winner?
Top five contenders for the Golden Boot
The race for the MLS's Golden Boot has been a mouthwatering theater for quite some time. One notable example came in 2021, when NYCFC's Taty Castellanos clinched the award with 19 goals, finishing ahead of Ola Kamara of D.C. United on the assists tiebreaker. More recently, in 2024, former Liverpool forward Christian Benteke claimed the Golden Boot with 23 goals, finishing ahead of Denis Bouanga, Lionel Messi, and Luis Suárez, who each scored 20 goals.
This year might not end in a tiebreaker, but the numbers are very close. Here is a list of the top contenders:
1. Lionel Messi
Age: 39 years
Nationality: Argentina
Team: Inter Miami CF
The Argentine playmaker has carried his impressive World Cup form into the MLS, scoring 9 goals and 5 assists for Inter Miami since his return from the World Cup. He currently sits comfortably at the top of the goalscorers' standings and remains the favourite to win.
In the 2025 MLS campaign, he won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, comfortably edging past Los Angeles FC's Denis Bouanga, who finished with 24 goals. This season, the Argentine has already netted 21 goals. And many analysts believe he is well-positioned to retain the award. If successful, Messi would become the first player to win the MLS Golden Boot in back-to-back seasons.
2. Petar Musa
Age: 28 years
Nationality: Croatia
Team: FC Dallas
Who would have imagined that the former Benfica forward would emerge as a serious contender for the MLS Golden Boot? Just five years ago, the Croatian was being sent out on loan to mid-table clubs in Portugal and Germany, with his career yet to take off. Fast-forward to today, the Croatian has found form, scoring 18 goals in 23 match appearances for FC Dallas.
Currently away on international duty with Croatia, the FC Dallas striker will be eager to carry his impressive form into the final stretch of the MLS season. He currently has 23 G/A and sits right behind Messi on the top scorer list.
3. Brian White
Age: 30 years
Nationality: USA
Team: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Another star to be on the lookout for is ‘Brian White.' The 30-year-old veteran striker is on fire, netting four times in his last five matches. This season alone, he has made 23 appearances and 17 goals, just one behind Petar.
Meanwhile, Vancouver Whitecaps FC are pushing to overtake Nashville SC at the top of the standings and strengthen their hopes of lifting the MLS Cup. White will undoubtedly have his sights set on both individual and collective glory.
4. Milan Iloski
Age: 29 years
Nationality: USA
Team: Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union have endured a difficult campaign, losing 10 of their 27 matches, but one bright spot has been their attacking output. The Zolos have found the back of the net 51 times this season, averaging close to two goals per game.
At the heart of that attacking threat is Milan Iloski; the American forward has 16 goals to his name and sits fourth in the MLS Golden Boot standings. While much of the spotlight is on Lionel Messi and Petar Musa, Iloski could prove to be the dark horse of the race, with pundits tipping the Philadelphia forward as a potential surprise winner.
5. Sam Surridge
Age: 28 years
Nationality: United Kingdom
Team: Nashville SC
Nashville SC tops the league and are the clear favorites; their campaign has been impressive, securing 18 wins and 6 draws in 27 matches. At the heart of this brilliant campaign is Sam Surridge; he has been excellent for the boys in Gold, netting 16 times this season.
Some analysts say if he can maintain 100% fitness and feature in all remaining games, he could mount a serious challenge for the top-scorer prize.
Analysis: Who Will Come Out on Top?
In 2019, Carlos Vela did the unthinkable, scoring a record-breaking 34 goals in MLS to claim the Golden Boot in what was almost a one-man race for the prize. Since then, no player has managed to match his remarkable tally.
Now, Lionel Messi is closing in. The World Cup winner claimed the same prize last season with 29 goals, just five short of Vela's record. This season, Messi has another opportunity to not only surpass that mark but also make history by becoming the first player to win the MLS Golden Boot in back-to-back seasons.
For analysts, the numbers give a clearer picture of the possibilities. Polymarket currently gives Messi an 80.7% implied chance of winning the award, with his closest challenger, Petar Musa, at 4.3%, and the numbers vary across multiple bookies. With seven games still to play, could Messi rewrite the record books once again?