Crunching the Numbers to Find a Replacement for Alex Baena
With just five matches left, Villarreal currently sit in 5th place in La Liga, one point above Real Betis It all seems like 5th place will be enough to achieve UEFA Champions League qualification, thanks to the Spanish teams’ good performances in European competitions. If Villarreal end up losing their spot, it will be hard to maintain quality such as that of Alex Baena, who was close to leaving in January with a release clause of €60 million.
In this article, we will be looking at potential replacements for Alex Baena at Villarreal. With the use of Scouting Stats AI and the McLachApp, both websites formed by football data enthusiasts on Twitter by the names of @ChicagoDmitry and @DEvansData on X, I have been able to find three potential replacements for Alex Baena at Villarreal.
It will be hard to see Villarreal letting Baena go for a fee less than his €60 million release clause. Because of this, we will be looking at players with a maximum market value of €30 million, as they would also use this money to reinforce other positions, given that they will still be playing in three competitions.
Name: Gustavo Hamer
Position: Left Winger/Attacking Midfielder/Center Midfielder
Country: The Netherlands
Age: 27
Height: 169cm
Preferred Foot: Right
Current Club: Sheffield United
Context: Hamer passed through the academies of Meergburg and ADO before joining Feyenoord’s youth system. In the first team, he spent just 2 years, including a loan spell to Dordrecht, until he joined PEC Zwolle for more than €750k. After 2 years there, Coventry City paid €4.5 million for his services, and in the summer of 2023, Sheffield United would spend in excess of €17 million for his signature.
Comparison of stats between Gustavo Hamer and Alex Baena. (Mclachapp, 2025).
In this chart, we can observe that both players have similar characteristics, with both being chance creators as they have high xA values. In addition, they both have relatively high numbers in xG, though Baena exceeds that of the Sheffield United winger. However, they both have the instinct to shoot often.
Furthermore, they are not individuals who tend to dribble and carry the ball into the box, as we can see with their poor numbers in this aspect of the game. Overall, both players share the same tendencies and are quite similar in all areas.
Heatmaps of Gustavo Hamer and Alex Baena. (Sofascore, 2025).
These images resemble each player’s average positioning. The first noticeable aspect from the illustrations is that both players tend to appear in the same positions, as they both play on the left wing, however, they tend to come central to boast their playmaking abilities. In addition, we can also see that both players take the corners for their respective teams.
Overall, Gustavo Hamer would be an excellent replacement for Baena as they share the same characteristics and same positional tendencies, which would allow him to enter the Villarreal lineup to perfection. Nonetheless, in the summer, he turns 28, and although his contract runs out in 2027, the question is whether Villarreal will want to spend a fee in excess of €15 million for the winger who probably won’t have any return on investment.
Name: Santiago Rodríguez
Position: Left Winger/Attacking Midfielder
Country: Uruguay
Age: 25
Height: 172cm
Preferred Foot: Right
Current Club: Botafogo
Context: Rodríguez came up through the ranks of Nacional, and after just two years, Montevideo City Torque (City Football Group) paid more than €4 million for him. After just 6 months, he was sent on loan and then sold permanently to New York City FC (also CFG), where he spent two years until Botafogo came in February, paying in excess of €14 million for his services.
Comparison of stats between Santiago Rodríguez and Alex Baena. (Mclachapp, 2025).
In this chart, we can observe that both wingers share the ability to create and get into goal-scoring positions to a big extent. Nonetheless, Rodríguez is a more skilled dribbler, attempting close to 3 dribbles per 90, and almost doubles Baena’s carries into the penalty box. This tells us that he is more of a traditional winger compared to the Spaniard as he dribbles far more often, which may also affect the way in which he generates opportunities, as opposed to Baena, who has a killer pass.
Furthermore, it is important to note that Rodríguez’s data comes from his time in the MLS, which is miles off the level of the top Spanish division. However, he does show that he is ready for the next level, being one of the best players in the competition, which led to his move to Brazil.
The first observation we can make looking at this heatmap is that both players share the tendency to come inside and receive the ball between the lines rather than on the wing. This is a trademark characteristic of Baena’s game, so it is important for his replacement to share the same attribute. Furthermore, both players once again take their respective teams’ corners.
Overall, how Santiago Rodríguez would perform in La Liga is something that we would need video to confirm; however, his numbers represent a player of similar characteristics to Baena. Either way, a high fee will be needed to take him away from Botafogo, who signed him just a few months ago for a large price.
Name: Romano Schmid
Position: Attacking Midfielder/Left Winger
Country: Austria
Age: 25
Height: 172cm
Preferred Foot: Right
Current Club: Werder Bremen
Context: Schmid began his career at Sturm Graz, and after just one year in the first team, RB Salzburg paid €600k to sign the Austrian. Fast forward one year and 6 months, Werder Bremen are spending €1 million for his services and is then sent on loan to Wolfsberger for the remainder of the season and one more year. Since the summer of 2020, he has been playing at the German club.
This chart tells us that Schmid’s goal-scoring capabilities are far below that of Baena, and we can see that he attempts these far less than the Spaniard. Nonetheless, when it comes to creating chances, although Baena almost doubles Schmid’s values in expected assists, Baena’s numbers are one of the best in the world.
This means that finding a player with that capability is very hard given Villarreal’s budget, and Schmid’s numbers are still very high playing in a top 5 league. Furthermore, Schmid likes to carry the ball and dribble more frequently than the Olympic Gold medalist, with more than triple that of Baena for carries into the penalty box.
Heatmaps of Romano Schmid and Alex Baena. (Sofascore, 2025).
These heatmaps represent each player’s positioning throughout the season. The most noticeable aspect of both images is that both players tend to appear in the same positions, showing that Schmid could be capable of playing in Baena’s role without much adaptation. Moreover, just like the other two players, he takes the corners for his club.
Overall, Schmid seems like a suitable replacement for Baena, as although his numbers don’t resemble those of the Spaniard. Nor does he share his ability to score goals; however, he still has a great capacity to generate opportunities. Also, he has experience in a top 5 division and similar positional tendencies. Moreover, his contract has not been made public, however, rumours say that his contract expires this summer or the next, so he would be available on either a free transfer or at a discounted price.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I think Romano Schmid would be a great option, given his age and availability, as well as experience. Nonetheless, the other two players seem ready to take their game to the next level and perform to a great standard in a role that suits their attributes. However, Gustavo Hamer will be 28 years old come summer, while Santiago Rodríguez’s availability is questionable, given his recent signing to Botafogo.
By: Juan Fernandez Valencia / @ScoutLaLiga
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Pressinphoto / Icon Sport