How Daniel Farke Saved Leeds United’s Season
In the 25/26 Premier League season, amid its own intellectual movements and shifting dogmas, Leeds United have underwent their own renaissance. Their recent form has been exceptional, with the team unbeaten in seven league games, but the true origin, or rebirth, of this improved Leeds came back in November.
On a losing streak of three games and with Leeds trailing 2-0 away to Manchester City at half-time, having been grossly outperformed, Daniel Farke knew a bold change was required. So, he took off Wilfried Gnonto and Daniel James and replaced them with Jaka Bijol and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. But the daring move wasn’t the personnel change, it was the structural one. Leeds went from a back four, to a back three, and they haven’t looked back since.
They would lose that game 3-2 thanks to a 90+1-minute goal from Phil Foden, but green shoots were now visible, and it didn’t take long for them to sprout and bear fruit. Just 4 days later, they beat Chelsea 3-1. Three days after that, they drew 3-3 with Liverpool in one of the games of the season. In fact, after that Man City defeat, they wouldn’t taste another loss for eight games.
Leeds rebirth, their renaissance moment, wasn’t simply switching to a back three, though. It was the acute change in playing style. Where the Renaissance drew upon the classical periods of Ancient Greece and Rome, Farke drew upon the classical periods of the Premier League and Leeds United. A period where direct attacking was king and physicality was his sword.
Although still maintaining a man-to-man press that can be aggressive in the final third, Leeds are now content to concede possession and sit deeper at times. Having abandoned the more controlled, possession-based approach Farke started the season with, Leeds now attack with a lot more pace and incision. Per Opta, they are 18th for total sequence time, 17th for total passes per sequence, and 5th for direct speed.
Leeds are a great example of why pragmatism can be the greatest asset to teams fighting near the bottom of the Premier League table. Focal to their playing style and surge in form, is Calvert-Lewin. Prior to the formational change, he struggled for consistent starts, and on the occasions when he did, he struggled for goals. In fact, he only scored once in the eleven games leading up to that paradigm-shifting game at the Etihad.
That watershed moment at half-time split Calvert-Lewin’s season into two disparate parts – BE and AE (Before Etihad and After Etihad). Following the change to a back three, he would score seven goals in the six subsequent games, including four minutes into his substitute appearance against City. Evidence of being on the right track couldn’t be more conclusive.
What makes Calvert-Lewin so good is his all-around game. He can operate as a channel runner and make dangerous runs behind defences, or he can function as a box threat and drift into space in the penalty area. He is an obstinate presser of the ball and will maintain intensity throughout matches.
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Perhaps his greatest strength, though, is his strength. At 6’2, he is a very physical player and uses this to hold off opponents and link up play in the build-up, as well as outmuscling and outjumping opponents to apply the finishing touch in the box. His strength and height have led him to winning 118 aerial duels this season, the 2nd most for any non-CB, behind only Thierno Barry on 119.
In fact, this is indicative of the wider success of Leeds this year. Promoted teams are faced with dilemmas when they reach the Premier League. Do you minimise recruitment in favour of squad harmony, or do you overhaul the team? And if you overhaul, what type of team do you want to build?
Leeds went for the overhaul option and brought in eleven players in the summer. But what’s more pertinent than the number is the makeup of the players they signed. Of the eleven signings, nine are 6ft or more. The club looked at what makes a promoted team successful in the Premier League, identified height and physicality as salient attributes, and recruited accordingly.
However, there must be a synthesis between recruitment policy and on-field tactics. At the start of the season, there was not. It was church and state; divergent parts at odds with each other, much to Leeds’ detriment. The possession-oriented game Farke wanted to impose did not align with the physical players he signed in the summer.
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So, Farke scrapped his control-based dogma and, by switching to a back three, embraced the physicality. The rest is history. The importance of cohesion between playing style and recruitment cannot be understated as a reason for Leeds’ survival. Yet, despite the promising turnaround in the middle part of the season, on March 3rd, after a 1-0 loss at home to Sunderland, Leeds United were only 2 points above the relegation zone.
At this point, many people had them as favourites to be relegated alongside Burnley and Wolves. So Farke made another formational tweak. The formation switched from a 3-4-3 to a 3-4-2-1, with Noah Okafor brought into the lineup to play as a 2nd 10 alongside Brenden Aaronson. This allows the two 10s to play slightly more centrally and link up with Calvert-Lewin, whilst the wing-backs provide the width.
The introduction of Okafor, in particular, has been a minor revelation. As a dynamic and pacey player, he thrives off attacking spaces, exploiting the gaps created by playing off Calvert-Lewin. Since he came into the starting lineup against Manchester United, he has scored four goals and one assist. The point value of those goals has been nine. He is an instrumental reason for Leeds’ second resurgence this season, which has seen them effectively secure safety.
A quick glance at the underlying numbers, and the Yorkshire club’s return to the Premier League looks to be a nascent one. Their xG difference of 2.2 is the 11th best, above Champions League side Aston Villa. In 15th and 16th-century Europe, amid intellectual movements and shifting dogmas, a cultural revolution took place. The Renaissance was born. Emphasising Classical Greek and Roman learning, it took elements of the Classical period and integrated them into a contemporary time. Literally, a ‘rebirth’.
So is the reason why Leeds have flirted with relegation simply been bad luck? Without wishing to be oversimplistic, largely yes. The conversion rate of their opponents this season is the 5th-worst in the league. They have been victims of elite finishing and moments of brilliance, such as Foden’s late winner. They have also suffered moments of misfortune like Gabriel Gudmundsson’s own goal at Fulham and Tammy Abraham’s knee equaliser in February (although you gotta respect a goal scored with unconventional body parts).
Having said that, to blame it all on luck would be superficial. According to FotMob, Leeds’ two goalkeepers, Karl Darlow and Lucas Perri, have both conceded 3 goals more than their xGOT (a post-shot stat that measures the likelihood of a shot on target going in). Additionally, the deficit between xG and goals can be explained by subpar finishing. All in all, though, the underlying numbers are promising and can be the building blocks for Leeds to climb upwards next season.
So what does happen next? When the Renaissance ended around 1600, a new cultural movement took its place – The Age of Enlightenment. It was characterised by a prioritisation of knowledge and analysis over dogmas, as well as challenging the established authority. English football is now entering its own Age of Enlightenment. The authority of the ‘Top Six’ has been dismantled, dogmatism has largely been abandoned, and data and analysis are now essential to a club’s success.
Leeds’ renaissance, celebrating the rediscovery of the classic physicality of the Premier League, has brought them joy this season. But if they are to establish themselves as one of the top-flight’s top clubs in the seasons to come (a goal they should be ultimately striving for, given their size and history), they will need to embrace the enlightenment. Challenge the perceived big clubs, maintain pragmatism, and take inspiration from Brighton, Brentford, and Bournemouth’s data-led recruitment.
It is not easy to establish yourself in the Premier League, but Leeds have done well and laid the foundations. With a bit of ambition, could they build themselves up to be one of the top clubs in England again? Perhaps they could, perhaps they couldn’t. But they should take inspiration from the motto for the Age of Enlightenment, and at least “Dare to Know”.
By: Brett Forrest / @BrettFJourno
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / James Williamson – AMA – Getty Images / Sebastian Frej / MB Media / Getty Images