Nottingham Forest: The Premier League’s Surprise Package

A quick look at the current Premier League table may make you think you were back in Nottingham Forest’s glory days with them sitting third in the table. They have lost the fewest amount of games in the league, tied with Liverpool, and they will be looking to continue their red-hot form with another victory against Newcastle on Sunday.

Incredibly, they actually sit tenth in the home form EPL table while being second in the away form league table and haven’t been beaten away from the City Ground (3W/2D). You could be forgiven for thinking that they have had a run of ten easy games but, in reality, that’s far from the case.

They have actually went to Anfield and won 1-0 then went to Stamford Bridge and came away with a point in an exciting 1-1 encounter. Let’s not forget when they came back to rescue a point away to Brighton, three excellent away results in which many probably wouldn’t have predicted they would get any points, never mind taking five.

Forest sit third in the table after winning each of their last three matches, a run that started off with a 1-0 home win against Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football, then followed up by an impressive 3-1 away win against Leicester in which they probably should have scored more.

The most impressive result was the 3-0 home win against West Ham — Forest completely blew them away in the second half after Edson Alvarez’s red card and prevailed with a well-deserved victory. Another big thing to look at is the amount of goals conceded (7) — only Liverpool have conceded fewer (6) and then the next lowest number is eleven, whilst they have also scored the goals in the top-half (14).

Photo: Forest’s team vs. West Ham [FotMob]

Forest set up to be hard to beat and both their deep lying midfielders are absolute workhorses. Ryan Yates and Nicolas Dominguez have been the preferred partnership in front of the defence and they’ve been excellent at protecting them this season.

The biggest thing this particular team has is pace and power, particularly in the wide areas. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga have bundles of pace which is used to exploit teams on the counter. Add to that the ability of Ola Aina and Alex Moreno have to overlap and Forest are so dangerous in the wide areas.

I wouldn’t say they set up to be defensive but they rarely control position and look to exploit teams on the counter with the pace they have out wide and the creativity in the middle. The pace in the wide areas is clearly important to their success but so is the number ten. They are the player that links the midfield and attack and their main chance creator.

Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White have created twenty-seven chances just between the two of them, with Anderson creating four ‘big chances’ and Gibbs-White creating two. Anderson currently has three assists this season and is Forest’s only player to register more than one in the EPL.

The overloads created in the wide areas make their counter attacks so deadly and even if they are struggling to create, they will always be dangerous on the counter. It also helps when you have a striker as powerful and good in the air as Chris Wood inside the box to find. Nuno Espirito Santo has this side so well drilled, every player knows what their role is and they all work incredibly hard for the team.

The players have clearly bought into their managers philosophy and it’s paying dividends on the pitch with performances and results. However, the biggest stand-out player for Forest this season (aside from Elliot Anderson) has to be Chris Wood. He’s a criminally under rated striker and I think a lot of that is down to his poor spell at Newcastle.

We’re talking about a player who’s on course to have another season of scoring ten plus EPL goals and this season would be the SIXTH time he’s done that and he’s already on EIGHT in TEN games. He’s strong, powerful and composed in front of goal, what more do you need from a team that loves to soak up pressure and counter? Let’s look at his EPL performance so far this season;

Photo: Wood’s shot map [FotMob]

He’s massively outperforming his xG so far this season, scoring eight goals from an xG of 4.51. He also currently has an incredible conversion rate of 38% and averaging 0.89 goals Per90, a truly incredible start to the season for the New Zealand international. Nuno Espirito Santo had this to say on him;

‘Wow, what can we say?’ Nuno said of Wood. ‘There is no better example. We cannot thank him enough. He has been huge for us. The lads have great confidence in him. I hope it continues.’

Having a striker that can hold up the ball so well and occupy multiple defenders is key in the success of this Nottingham Forest system. It allows the ten to drift into space, which pulls out the opposition fullbacks which allows the wingers to break in behind. What they do need to improve on, however, is getting goals from other players as, currently, this is their top scorer list;

Image via FotMob

That is it, only six players have scored and only one has scored more than two goals. Chances are being created from wide, but goals also need to start coming from there as well.

Elliot Anderson also deserves a special mention, I think he’s a sale that Newcastle will come to regret, let’s look at some of his standout stats;

• 3 Assists
• 2.09 Chances Created Per90
• 2.24 Successful Dribbles Per90
• Fouled 2.84 Times Per90
• 77.8% Tackles Won Per90
• 60.8% Duels Won Per90
• 5.68 Recoveries Per90

Photo:FotMob 

His radar above highlights how well rounded his performances have been, he’s contributing on both ends of the pitch and still has room to improve at only 22 years old. If it wasn’t for Chris Wood’s goals winning Forest so many points, Elliot Anderson would probably be their most important player.

It seems really simple when you break it down but Forest have been executing it perfectly so far, which is why they currently sit third in the table. Can they possibly keep up this form? Well that remains to be seen, they play Newcastle at the City Ground this weekend and they could go into the third international break still sitting third in the EPL.

They’re performing well above expectations so the biggest thing will be if they can sustain it, if they get to January still in a similar position, then the Forest fans may start dreaming of European adventures next season.

By: Kai Watson / @KaiGWatson

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / David Rogers / Getty Images