AC Milan v Genoa Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
AC Milan v Genoa
Kick Off: Sunday 15th December, 19:45
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: TNT Sports 2
Two teams in the middle section of the Serie A table meet at the San Siro on Sunday night when AC Milan play host to Genoa. It is fair to say that neither team are where they would want to be at present with Milan seventh in the table and losing ground on the European spots above them whereas Genoa are just three points off the drop zone in their second season in the division, having established themselves comfortably back in the top flight last term.
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Will Milan be able to find a much-needed win or will the visitors pick up a victory to take them away from trouble? For even more expert football betting predictions for this weekend’s footballing action from over Europe, head over to Andy’s Bet Club. You’ll find a range of expert football tips, plus free-to-use betting tools.
Match stats: Expect Milan to bring goals
As you would imagine with a side who are 4-2-1 at the San Siro in Serie A this season, AC Milan begin the evening as warm favourites to pick up a win and could have ideal opponents in Genoa who haven’t won any of their last seven meetings with the Rossoneri.
Genoa will arrive in Milan with a 3-0-3 record on their travels but when they have gone up against one of the better teams away from home they have generally been found wanting. They lost 3-0 in Lazio and 5-1 in Atalanta, while even at home Juventus have beaten them 3-0 so there is a gulf between the best and themselves.
To be fair to Genoa, they head to Milan unbeaten in their last five Serie A matches but they have all been against teams below AC Milan in the standings. Not only have Milan gone well at the San Siro this season, they have scored 13 goals in those seven matches and only conceded four so home comforts are very much something Paulo Fonseca’s men enjoy.
They are 1.33 to win this match but the evidence is clear that they look to be worthy favourites and can get the job done here. Genoa clearly have a habit of conceding goals against the better sides and Milan scored three in this fixture last season. Milan might need to make a couple of changes to their side having picked up an injury or two in the Champions League in midweek but the depth that they have suggests that shouldn’t be a problem.
Milan have already scored three or more at home to Empoli, Lecce and Venezia this term and against a Genoa side outfit who have conceded 24 in 15, the 1.40 on Milan to score over 1.5 goals and 2.50 on them adding another on their total look value prices.
Predictions:
AC Milan to win @ 1.33
AC Milan over 1.5 goals @ 1.40
AC Milan over 2.5 goals @ 2.50
Shot stats: Leao, Abraham and Reijnders the threats
The shot markets should provide some decent betting opportunities in this match, especially for players from the home side. When Genoa lost 5-1 in Atalanta earlier in the campaign, the home side had 23 shots at goal, eight of which were on target while in a 3-0 loss at Lazio, the Rome outfit had 18 shots so we can expect Milan players to get a number of shots away.
One man who might be most frequent in terms of shots is Tammy Abraham. He is expected to lead the line for Milan in this match due to the injury Alvaro Morata picked up in midweek. The former Chelsea star averages 3.6 shots per 90 minutes in Serie A this term and he is expected to play all 90 here so the 1.54 that he gets three shots away here appeals, not least because he had five of them in a little over an hour on the pitch in the Champions League on Wednesday night.
Rafael Leao scored in that game and hit the target on one other occasion and the 1.44 that he hits the target here makes plenty of appeal as well, particularly when you consider that he averages 1.5 shots on target per 90 in Serie A this term. With Milan expected to dominate, the Portugal international looks good for another shot on target.
The other player of note is Netherlands international Tijjani Reijnders, a midfielder who averages 1.8 shots per 90 in Serie A this term. He might get further forward in a match of this game state and Genoa have struggled to contain midfielders recently. In that defeat in Atalanta, Genoa gave up six shots to central midfielders and even last week Karol Linetty had two from that area of the pitch against them. Reijnders is technically good enough to get into positions to fire two shots here at 1.54.
Predictions:
Abraham 3+ shots @ 1.54
Leao 1+ shot on target @ 1.44
Reijnders 2+ shots @ 1.54
Foul stats: Thorsby and Sabelli could be in for a tough test
With the amount of technical players that Milan have in their side, Genoa could be forced to give a number of fouls away and two men who look standouts to be culprits are Morten Thorsby and Stefan Sabelli.
Thorsby is likely to be in a Genoa midfield which might get overrun with the technical quality they are up against and a man who averages a pretty crazy 3.3 fouls per 90 this term looks sure to be guilty of more here. He is 1.80 to give three or more fouls away and with the talent opposing him that looks more than possible.
Sabelli might have an even harder time because he is going to need to deal with the tricky Rafael Leao and the attacking full-back Theo Hernandez down his side and any mistimed challenge will surely result in a foul against those two.
The full-back averages 1.6 fouls committed per 90 but you would have to think that given who he is up against that number is likely to be increased here. Sabelli committed three fouls against Torino last week and can add two more to his tally here.
Predictions:
M.Thorsby 3+ fouls @ 1.80
S.Sabelli 2+ fouls @ 1.91
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty Images
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