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Atletico Madrid v Athletic Club Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

April 26, 2024
Tactical Preview, La Liga Analysis

Atletico Madrid v Athletic Club

Kick Off: Saturday 27nd April, 20:00

Competition: La Liga

Watch Live: ViaPlay Sports 1

 

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found in the football predictions section.

 

Two of the most historic La Liga sides clash on Saturday at the Wanda Metropolitano as Atletico Madrid play host to Athletic Club in a fixture that will go a long way to deciding Spain’s final Champions League qualifier for next season.

 

 

This is a meeting between the fourth and fifth-placed sides in Spain’s top-flight, and with La Liga set to miss out on a bonus place in the 2024/25 Champions League because of their poor performance on the continent this time around, it is a vital match on the calendar.

 

Neither side comes into the game in hot form. Atleti have lost three of their last five in the league while their Basque guests have picked up just two points in their last three La Liga games. Athletic did, however, record a historic Copa del Rey triumph on penalties by overcoming Mallorca earlier this month.

 

The advantage certainly lies with Diego Simeone’s men in this fixture. With a three-point cushion over their opponents, they would go a long way to sealing fourth spot with a victory. Defeat for Athletic, meanwhile, would represent a huge dent in their challenge.

 

The visitors will hope to get a charge of emotion following the iconic Iker Muniain’s announcement that he will leave the club in the summer, yet this still promises to be a desperately difficult task for Ernesto Valverde’s side. Here is the best advice for your Atletico Madrid v Athletic Club Bet Builder.

 

Match stats: Simeone’s side to corner Athletic

 

The notable statistic coming into this match is Atletico Madrid’s incredible home record. From 16 matches in La Liga, they have dropped points on only two occasions and have suffered a defeat only once. That reverse was just over a month ago against Barcelona, but they have since outclassed third-placed Girona 3-1 at home.

 

 

There’s a kicker, though. Athletic Club won 1-0 at the Wanda Metropolitano in the Copa del Rey in February thanks to a goal from Alex Berenguer. They then backed this up with a 3-0 success in the second leg at home. Atleti may appear invincible in front of their own supporters, but Valverde’s side have learned first-hand they are not.

 

Furthermore, the Basques have won all three matches between these clubs this season and have not conceded a single goal in any of these encounters. Los Colchoneros, despite their defeats, carried the more impressive statistics in both legs of the Copa del Rey tie, posting more shots and shots on target, more corners and fewer cards.

 

Simeone, therefore, may need to look to a different tactical approach in this game and could revert to his more pragmatic style. The capital side are typically characterised as being dour and defensive, yet 13 of their 16 home league matches this season have produced Over 2.5 goals. It would be little surprise, though, to see them try to lock this game down given a point suits them more.

 

Prediction:

Atletico Madrid (+0.5) @ 1.22

Atletico Madrid to win more corners @ 1.73

 

Shooting stats: Correa is Atleti’s man in form

 

Although both these sides attempt a very similar number of shots per game, Atletico Madrid boast almost exactly one shot on target per 90 more than their guests from Bilbao. Indeed, with 42.6% of their shots hitting the target, no club in La Liga is more efficient at working the keeper than Atleti.

 

 

Alvaro Morata is the most dangerous scorer in Diego Simeone’s attack. He has 14 goals for the season in La Liga, one more than Antoine Griezmann, and hits 1.62 shots on target per 90, more than anyone else in the capital side’s squad. His minutes have been limited lately due to disappointing form, though.

 

Angel Correa is their man in form when it comes to hitting the target. He has hit the target one in six of his last seven La Liga matches and has started each of the last two.

 

At longer odds, Samuel Lino is one to watch. The left wing-back has an attacking role to play in this side and with shots on target in eight of his last nine starts looks excellent value at 1.73. For Athletic, meanwhile, over a third of their on-target shots all season in the league have come from Inaki Williams (38) and Gorka Guruzeta (28). Both are priced at 1.53 to add to their tally here.

 

Guruzeta has already netted twice against Atleti this season, making him arguably superior value. He is 3.5 to net any time. Equally, Nico Williams has two goals against Simeone’s side this season and is 7.5 to score or 1.91 to get a shot on target. Given Nico’s history with Atleti, this is interesting value and could be worth an ambitious bet. 

 

 

Predictions:

Angel Correa to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.4

Samuel Lino to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.73

Gorka Guruzeta to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.53

Nico Williams to score anytime @ 7.5

 

Foul stats: Paredes offers excellent value

 

If the Copa del Rey encounters are anything to judge this game on, Athletic Club are likely to get into considerably more foul trouble than their hosts. With this fixture almost like a cup tie for the Basques, it promises to be a similar-type match.

 

In those games, Valverde’s side committed 35 fouls and were victims only 17 times. They picked up eight cards in total (all yellow) while Atleti saw only three. Logically, backing Athletic to receive more cards at 2.1 therefore looks an excellent bet.

 

Aitor Paredes was prolific in giving away free kicks in those games. He twice led his side in this regard, giving up three fouls in Madrid before committing four at home. Remarkably, he is 3.4 to even commit two fouls in this match.

 

 

Benat Prados was the other player to have two multiple-foul matches, giving up five free kicks in total. He is 1.67 to repeat this trick.

 

Alvaro Morata, who commits 1.57 fouls per 90 on average in La Liga this season, gave up four free kicks across 123 minutes in those two encounters, making him a prime contender to give up at least a couple of fouls here.


Fancy a card? Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta is your man. He has seven yellow cards this season and has been booked on both occasions he has faced Atletico Madrid. He is 2.5 to make his way into the referee’s notebook.

Predictions:

Athletic Club to receive most cards @ 2.4

Benat Prados to commit 2 fouls or more @ 1.67

Aitor Paredes to commit 2 fouls or more @ 3.4

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images

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