DFB Pokal Final Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
DFB Pokal Final
Kick Off: 19:00, Saturday 23rd May
Competition: Bundesliga
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Match Stats: Bayern to extend domestic dominance?
Bayern are as short as 1.33 to win here, and it’s hard to argue with that pricing when looking at their general dominance in German football and impressive head-to-head record against Stuttgart.
Bayern have won each of the last five head-to-head meetings between the sides, without any real trouble, netting 16 goals across these matches. The quality of their forward players is tough to match in Europe, let alone in the Bundesliga, and I think Stuttgart could once again struggle to match this attacking output.
However, it is worth leaning towards Stuttgart through both teams to score market. The impressive attacking quality of Bayern means that they often don’t pay attention to the defensive side of the game as much, as was evidenced in Bayern’s clash against PSG in the semi-finals of the Champions League.
Predictions –
BTTS @ 1.57
BTTS & Bayern to win @ 1.80
Bayern to score 2+ goals @ 1.25
Shot Stats: Options for Stuttgart
As you’d expect, Bayern’s attackers are incredibly short in the shot market for this final. Olise, Kane and Diaz are all priced at 1.05 or shorter for 2+ shots here, so instead of testing very high lines for these players I think it’s better to look at Stuttgart’s attacking options for an angle.
The two players that standout to me straightaway for a bet builder pick are Chris Fuhrich and Jamie Lewelling. The latter is priced at 1.80 to have 2+ shots here, while Fuhrich is a very appealing 1.90 for a player that has managed 3+ shots in each of his last three appearances in the DFB Pokal.
Fuhrich managed two shots on target and scored when the sides last met, with Stuttgart getting on the scoresheet twice in that game as Bayern came away 4-2 winners – which is a pretty good example of the type of game we can expect in this final. Stuttgart managed 11 shots overall in that game, so it is worth exploring their other shot and shot on target options – but I’m sticking with Fuhrich.
Stuttgart’s team shot line is also worth looking at here; you can get 2.0 for them to have 11+ shots, which is a line they’re covered in each of the last two head-to-head meetings between the sides, despite one of these games seeing them drop down to 10 men.
Predictions –
Chris Fuhrich 2+ shots @ 1.90
Chris Fuhrich 1+ shots on target @ 2.00
Stuttgart 11+ shots @ 2.00
Stuttgart 12+ shots @ 2.50
Card Stats: Bayern’s centre-backs are vulnerable
Vincent Kompany wants his side to press constantly, naturally seeing Bayern play with a high defensive line, which can be exploited if you have the right players.
Upamecano and Tah are particularly vulnerable to these situations. Tah is usually the player who engages with the opposition striker, while Upamecano is trusted to cover the space behind with his speed. The role of the goalkeeper is also important in sweeping to ensure that the space isn’t as appealing for Stuttgart to run into.
Upamecano was cautioned when these sides first met this season, showing how his role lends itself to cautions, as he’s often the last line of defence and has to make tactical fouls to stop Bayern from conceding. He’s always been a bit clumsy with his challenges, but it’s even more obvious when he’s used in this system.
Tah is also partial to a caution, having picked up seven yellow cards in the Bundesliga this season. The pair will be occupied by Undav and Demirovic, who can operate with the big man, little man dynamic to pull apart the Bayern centre-backs. I’d expect Demirovic to pull onto Tah, while Undav will look to get in behind Upamecano.
Predictions –
2+ Bayern Cards @ 1.50
Tah to be shown a card @ 3.50
Upamecano to be shown a card @ 5.00
By: @AndysBetClubUK
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