Inter Miami v Chicago Fire Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Inter Miami v Chicago Fire
Kick Off: Sunday 21st June, 00:30
Competition: MLS
Watch Live: Apple TV
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Inter Miami host Chicago Fire in MLS on Sunday, with Lionel Messi’s outfit seeking to maintain top spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Copa America threatened to be a difficult period for the Herons as key figures Messi and Luis Suarez left for international duty, yet Tata Martino’s outfit came through this period impressively and actually moved up in the standings. Suarez has since returned, while his Argentine colleague faces a spell out with an ankle injury.
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Their guests in Florida are a Chicago side that sits third from bottom of the Eastern Conference, but has run into some form lately. This is not a game that David Beckham’s franchise can afford to treat lightly as they step into the MLS mid-season break.
Match stats: Fire to prove troublesome
With five wins in their last six MLS outings, Inter Miami are a team in top form. The sole exception in this run was a 6-1 loss to main rivals Cincinnati. That defeat, though, was their third away match in the space of seven days, giving some reason for the scale of the loss. Martino’s side are on a run of scoring in 10 consecutive MLS matches but have equally conceded in each of their last nine.
What is interesting, however, is that their xG in recent weeks does not reflect their results. Over the course of their last six matches, their opponents have had a great xG. Inter Miami, meanwhile, have outperformed their xG in all five matches they have won. They have only once gone higher than 1.5xG for and have four times conceded more than this figure – which suggests they have been riding their luck at times.
By contrast, Chicago, who have lost only one of their last four, have generated at least 1.5xG in four of their last six matches. Indeed, the Fire come into this game on something of a high after beating Cincinnati 1-0 away from home on Wednesday. They had already struck what proved the decisive blow before the hosts were reduced to 10 with a couple of minutes left.
At 1.62, Inter Miami look value in terms of their recent results, but having scratched away the veneer to reveal the underlying statistics, backing Chicago (+2) at 1.4 appears to be a better price.
Another price to look out for is on the corners market. Inter Miami have lost their last six matches on the corner count, giving up an average of 5.83 over this period. Chicago, meanwhile, have won more corners than their opponents in three of their last six. At 1.91 with a +2 handicap, the Fire are strong value to win more corners.
Prediction:
Chicago Fire (+2) @ 1.4
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.4
Chicago Fire corner match bet @ 3.30
Goals stats: Suarez to come back with a bang
Luis Suarez is the favourite to score in this game, priced at 2.0 to net anytime. The Uruguay veteran was only able to make a cameo off the bench in midweek after his international exploits at the Copa America, but if he starts, as expected, he will be the main threat after having bagged 0.92 goals per 90 this season. Without Messi to aid him (the Argentine has 12 assists), the 37-year-old is likely to find life trickier, yet he is by far Miami’s greatest threat.
Federico Redondo, who has had a stop-start campaign, comes into the game after netting twice in the 3-1 midweek win over Toronto, but these are his only goals this season. Indeed, without Messi and Suarez available, Inter Miami have not had a regular source of goals. Right-back Ian Fray has scored two in his last three starts – the only player other than Redondo to have scored more than one goal in the Herons’ previous six outings – and is 5.5 to score any time here.
Chicago, meanwhile, have two players in more defined good form. Top scorer Hugo Cuypers, who has nine for the MLS season, has bagged three goals in his last six games, but Maren Haile-Selassie is better value. He has the same scoring record as the Belgian over the last half dozen games but has scored in three individual matches, albeit one was a penalty.
Haile-Selassie is priced at 3.75 to score at any point while Cuypers is 2.63. Brian Gutierrez, who scored the midweek winner in Cincinnati, is the other major threat. The 21-year-old has scored five for the campaign and after being a midweek substitute, is liable to revert to his usual starting role in midfield. At 4.5 to score anytime, his price is fair.
Predictions:
Luis Suarez to score @ 2.0
Maren Haile-Selassie to score @ 3.75
Cards stats: Busquets in the bad books again?
It’s been feast or famine in terms of cards for Inter Miami in recent matches. In three of their last nine, they have picked up at least six cards, while in five of these games they have had two or fewer cards. The trend, though, is for big numbers of cards on the road and few at home.
The Herons’ opponents, meanwhile, have only picked up more than two cards once in their last eight MLS matches. They are one of the worst teams in the league at drawing cards from their rivals.
Chicago, meanwhile, have received at least three cards in each of the last three matches. They average 2.21 cards per 90, so this is above their usual trend. In 26 MLS matches this season, they have picked up either two or three cards on 16 occasions, going above that figure only twice.
So who are the individuals to look out for picking up a card? Three in particular stand out for Inter Miami: Tomas Aviles, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba. Aviles has been cautioned ten times this season and sent off once, while Busquets (six yellows, one red) is returning from a ban. Alba, meanwhile, has 0.36 cards per 90 this season.
Federico Redondo is also worth watching. The Argentine has 0.49 cards per 90 from limited match time, yet as he is unlikely to last 90 minutes for the second time in a matter of days is something of a wildcard in this market.
Indeed, all the most prolific players in terms of receiving cards are likely to start in the home side. Fabian Herbers and Mauricio Pineda both post more than 0.4 cards per 90 for the Fire but are unlikely starters. Kellyn Acosta (five), Rafael Czichos and Brian Gutierrez (both four) are the players most prone to picking up cards liable to start.
Predictions:
Sergio Busquets to be shown a card @ 3.0
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Michael Reaves / Getty Images
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