Lazio v Napoli Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Lazio v Napoli
Kick Off: Saturday 15th February
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: OneFootball
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Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa: Napoli’s Combative Midfield General
Antonio Conte’s title chasing Napoli travel to Lazio, with Inter Milan and Atalanta hot on their tails in the battle for supremacy in Serie A. Lazio sit just outside the title race, 10 points behind their opponents here, but a win could put them in that conversation. Lazio have already got the better of Napoli this season, running out 1-0 winners in the initial meeting between the sides back in December, they also knocked Napoli out of the Coppa Italia, so there will be a sense of optimism in the Lazio camp.
Match Stats – Both sides can be stubborn and aggressive
Only Inter and Atalanta boast a better away record in Serie A than Napoli this season, Antonio Conte’s side have only lost 1 game on the road this season, with 8 wins from their 12 away assignments this season. This record has come as a result of a sturdy defensive setup which has only conceded 9 goals – the joint best away defensive away record in the division.
Lazio have been pretty steady at home this campaign with 7 wins from their 12 home games this season. They’ve been pretty good in the final third in these games with 25 goals scored, more than Napoli and Fiorentina have managed in their home games. Lazio also have the psychological advantage heading into this game, knowing that they have already bested Antonio Conte’s side on 2 occasions this season.
The initial league meeting between these sides was a game of few chances as shown by the xG posted by both sides (0.56-0.29) as well as there only being 2 big chances in the game which indicates that this meeting will also be decided by very small margins between two sides competing towards the upper end of the Serie A table.
Predictions:
- Match Result: Napoli or draw @ 1.44
- Under 3.5 goals @ 1.25
Shot Stats – McTominay the man for Napoli
McTominay has been crucial for Napoli this season, the central midfielder is effective in all areas of the pitch but has shown real form in front of goal and with his shot numbers in recent weeks. McTominay has scored 6 goals across his 21 Serie A appearances this season, whilst averaging 2.26 shots per 90 and 0.70 shots on target per 90.
He’s found the back of the net twice across his last 5 Serie A appearances, he’s had at least 1 shot on target in 4 of these appearances, suggesting that he’s been instructed to affect the game in the final third as often as possible recently. McTominay had 2 attempts in the initial meeting between these sides.
In a game that is likely to be quite fiercely contested and with limited opportunities to create chances with frequency, McTominay’s late runs into the box and physical presence can offer an avenue to goal for Napoli here or at the very least see McTominay have a few efforts on goal.
Predictions
- Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target @ 1.73
- Scott McTominay 2+ shots @ 1.4
- Scott McTominay to score/assist @ 3.0
Card Stats – Nicolo Rovella the standout
Lazio have received 54 yellow cards in Serie A this season, only Hellas Verona and Monza have been cautioned more times than Marco Baroni’s side, who also rank relatively high for fouls committed per game (11.7). Napoli have received the fewest cautions in Serie A this season (28) so it makes sense to focus on the home side when it comes to cautions and fouls here.
Rovella in the middle of the pitch really stands out for Lazio, he’s collected nine yellow cards which is more than any other player in the Napoli squad whilst averaging 1.55 fouls committed per 90 across his 21 Serie A appearances this season. This average could be set to rise up against Scott McTominay who has won 32 fouls across his 21 Serie A appearances this season (1.60 per 90).
Rovella didn’t feature in the initial meeting between these sides but Matteo Guendouzi lined up against Scott McTominay, he committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card which is a pretty solid indication of the defensive work Rovella is going to have to get through here. Rovella has received a yellow card in six of his last ten games in Serie A and has committed at least 1 foul in 4 of his last 5 appearances in the Italian top flight.
Predictions
- Nicolo Rovella 2+ fouls committed @ 1.44
- Scott McTominay 2+ fouls won @ 1.4
- Nicolo Rovella to be shown a card @ 3.3
- Lazio to be shown the most cards @ 2.2
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty Images
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