Napoli v Fiorentina Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Napoli v Fiorentina
Kick Off: Sunday 9th March
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: Paramount+
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Antonio Conte’s Napoli are eyeing up a return to winning ways following a run of five games without a victory, four of these ending in draws. This recent run has just stifled Napoli’s charge for the Scudetto with the likes of Atalanta and Inter taking this opportunity to make up some ground.
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Fiorentina come into this game out of form as well, having won just one of their last five games across all competitions, which came against a struggling Lecce side. Both sides will see this as an opportunity to get back to winning ways but Napoli are the favourites given their superior league position in Serie A.
Match Stats: Napoli to get back to winning ways
It would be an exaggeration to say that Antonio Conte’s Napoli side have been poor in recent weeks but they’ve certainly dropped off a few levels in recent weeks. Some have attributed this to the departure of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the January transfer window, which has left Napoli a little unimaginative in attack, but this game presents an opportunity to silence the noise that will continue to build as we reach the climax of this thrilling Serie A title race.
Napoli have won nine of their 13 home games in Serie A this season, this record was a little more imperious before their recent drop off but it is still the third best home record in Serie A behind Bologna and Inter. Napoli ran out 3-0 winners in the initial meeting between the sides when they were in a real rhythm of winning games, Conte’s sides tend to perform in winning streaks which have aided him in winning titles in Italy and England in the past. Fiorentina have lost five of their 13 games on the road in Serie A this season, which isn’t an awful record but should be just short of the level required to turn over Napoli despite their recent drop in form.
Napoli will have to watch Inter take on Monza before taking to the field here with the third horse in the race in Atalanta facing a tough test where they travel to Turin to take on a Juventus side that has only lost one game in the league all season. This game represents a pivotal moment in the Serie A title race and Napoli should be able to recover from their inconsistent form over recent weeks to come away with the three points.
Predictions
- Napoli to win @ 1.5
- Over 1.5 Napoli goals @ 1.67
- A goal scored in both halves: Yes @ 1.73
Shot Stats: McTominay can provide again
Scott McTominay scored the third goal in Napoli’s 3-0 win over Fiorentina earlier this year, the 28-year-old had two shots in the game and has been a threat for Napoli in the final third all season.
The Scottish midfielder has provided eight goal contributions across his 24 appearances for Napoli in Serie A this season so he’s turning up with a goal contribution every three games for the Italian side, which is a decent record for a central midfielder. McTominay’s profile really suits Italian football, he’s physical in the middle of the park and acts as a threat in the box with late runs into the penalty area.
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McTominay’s shot numbers are also pretty promising, the former Manchester United man has had 50 shots (2.18 per 90) with 16 of these finding the target (0.70 per 90). These metrics showcase just how much of a threat McTominay can be in the final third, he can hurt Fiorentina again here with his pace and power just as he did in the initial meeting between the sides.
Predictions
- Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target @ 1.4
- Scott McTominay 3+ shots @ 1.57
- Scott McTominay to score/assist @ 2.3
Card Stats: Frustration to get the better of Fiorentina
Fiorentina have been shown 54 yellow cards across their 27 games in Serie A this season (2.0 per game). By contrast, Napoli have been shown the fewest cautions in Italy’s top-flight this campaign, picking up just 34 cautions across their 27 games in the division (1.25 per game) so we can expect Fiorentina to be picking up the majority of the bookings here, particularly as the away side.
La Viola managed to avoid any cautions in the initial meeting between the sides despite committing 17 fouls. This volume of fouls usually tempts the referee to reach for his pocket on a few occasions and they are unlikely to get away with it again here. When looking at specific players that can pick up cautions here, Dodo stands out as a player that can end the game in the referee’s notebook.
Dodo has been shown six yellow cards in Serie A this season, more than any other player in the Fiorentina squad, whilst averaging 0.78 fouls committed per 90. These sides are likely to match each other up in terms of shape with both managers preferring a 3-5-2 system in recent weeks which should see Dodo contest multiple duels. Fiorentina are likely to quickly become frustrated here with Napoli set to control the game, the away side may even end up exceeding their average cards per game if they post a similar number of fouls to the initial meeting between the sides.
Predictions
- 2+ Fiorentina cards @ 1.22
- Fiorentina to be shown the most cards @ 1.83
- Dodo to be shown a card @ 2.88
- Dodo 1+ fouls committed @ 1.36
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty Images
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