Napoli v Lazio Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Napoli v Lazio
Kick Off: 17:00, Saturday 18th April
Competition: Serie A
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Napoli welcome Lazio, as Antonio Conte’s side look to keep the pressure on Inter Milan in the race for the Scudetto. It looked like Inter had pretty much secured the title a few weeks ago, but a strong run of form by Napoli has just about brought them back into contention – with the chasing side sitting nine points behind Inter ahead of kick-off.
They welcome a Lazio side who don’t have too much to fight for, with 13 points keeping them from the European spots. It has been an exasperating season for Lazio fans like Shawn McIntosh, but they can still prove to be an awkward task for the home side, having avoided defeat to Napoli in four of the last five meetings between the sides in Serie A.
Match Stats: Napoli worth backing
You can get 1.6 for Napoli to win with some bookmakers for this Saturday evening clash. I think that’s a price worth taking given the situation that Napoli find themselves in, they play a day before Inter Milan this week – so could move to within six points of the league leaders ahead of their clash with Cagliari.
Napoli haven’t done a lot wrong in Serie A this season. They’ve obviously missed the clinical nature of Kvaratskhelia and Osimhen, but Conte has once again engineered a successful league campaign. They are yet to lose at home in the Italian top flight, having won 11 of their 15 home games – netting 26 goals in the process while conceding just 13.
It’s hard to make a case for Lazio here beyond the historical record between the sides, which doesn’t really apply here. Napoli came away 2-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season – they fully deserved that win as well with an xG of 1.86 from 14 shots, while also limiting Lazio to just five shots and zero shots on target.
Predictions –
Napoli to win @ 1.55
Napoli -1 handicap @ 2.20
Shot Stats: De Bruyne Returns
It would have been interesting to see how much closer Napoli would be to Inter Milan if De Bruyne had been fit all season. He’s only recently come back from injury, but was posting some promising underlying numbers before his setback – netting four goals across his 10 starts in Serie A.
He has achieved this goal tally from 23 shots in total (2.36 per 90), nine of which managed to find the target (0.92 per 90). 15 of these efforts have come from outside of the box, which is also worth noting for any De Bruyne angles you end up taking here.
De Bruyne is on all set pieces for Napoli, so I’d also look at him for a goal contribution as well as taking some shot lines for the Belgian. I’m particularly interested in De Bruyne to have 1+ shots on target from outside the box, which landed in his most recent game as Napoli drew with Parma on the road.
Predictions –
De Bruyne 2+ shots @ 1.40
De Bruyne 1+ shots on target @ 2.00
De Bruyne 1+ shots on target from OTB @ 2.3
Card Stats: Chance of a red?
The initial league meeting between these sides produced four yellow cards and three red cards. Two of those red cards were straight reds right at the end of the game, and we could be in for quite a feisty game again here.
That 2-0 win for Napoli earlier in the season only actually had 23 match fouls, which is pretty modest for the total card count we ended up seeing in the game. This suggests that the challenges that were going in had plenty of ferocity and tempted the referee into reaching for his pocket quite quickly.
The referee for this game is Luca Zufferli, who does have a pretty modest card count per game (2.62), but the intensity between these sides should see that rise from relatively few fouls, as it did in the initial meeting.
Predictions –
4+ Match Cards @ 1.80
A Red Card in the Match @ 6.0
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Silvia Lore – Getty Images
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