Napoli v Verona Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Napoli v Verona
Kick Off: Sunday 12 January, 19.45 GMT
Competition: Serie A
Watch live: TNT Sports 1
Leaders Napoli have the chance to put another three points on the board on Sunday evening when they welcome lowly Verona to Naples.
Antonio Conte will be looking to guide his side to the title come the end of the season and will be expected to win at home to Verona but the visitors arrive at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium knowing that they were convincing winners of the reverse fixture. Will the form of the season hold up here or could Verona do what would be a sensational double over the Naples based outfit?
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Match Stats: Expect a comfortable home win with the away side struggling for goals
Napoli look to have found their groove going into 2025 having won their last 4 matches, and they are around 1.20 to pick up another win against Verona. Verona have won 6 and lost 12 of their 19 matches in Serie A this term, drawing just once, although to be fair they have won their last 2 on the road and were 3-0 winners when these sides met in the reverse meeting.
That was the opening week of the season though and they might just have caught Napoli cold. Napoli have only lost 2 matches since then and are clearly the better side here. In contrast, Verona have really struggled against the bigger teams in the division since then. They have lost 3-0 against Juventus, 6-1 against Atalanta and 5-0 against Inter Milan.
We should probably expect something similar here with Napoli expected to do a bit of a job on Verona. Verona have the leakiest defence in the league whereas Napoli have the tightest one and that isn’t a combination which bodes well for the visiting team.
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7 of the 14 Napoli wins this season have come by more than 1 goal and with Verona having lost 6 of their 9 away games and having conceded 20 goals in those matches, the 1.67 on Napoli to cover a -1 handicap looks good here. Given that Verona are averaging more than 2 goals per game against, and that increases when they go up against the better sides, it might be worth siding with Napoli to score more than 2.5 goals at 2.20.
Napoli aren’t necessarily the most free scoring team in the world but they go up against the leakiest defence here and that price looks too big. Another price that looks big is for Verona to score under 0.5 goals. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 7 matches, didn’t score against Inter and were 5-0 down when they notched against Atalanta. Against a team with the best defensive record in Serie A there is no guarantee that Verona score in this one.
Predictions:
Napoli -1 @ 1.67
Napoli Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20
Verona Under 0.5 goals @ 1.67
Shot Stats: Napoli pair can rain in the shots on weak Verona defence
The game state of this one is likely to be Napoli being on the front foot and it should lead to them getting a lot of shots away over the course of the match. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been out injured for Napoli recently but he is expected to be back for this match and it should make sense to take him to get 4 or more shots away at 1.40.
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He averages 3.8 shots per 90 minutes in Serie A this season but when you factor in this weak Verona defence, that average should be covered here at 1.40. The same line for David Neres is available at 1.73, he isn’t far behind his Georgian teammate when it comes to shots per 90 minutes.
Neres averages 3.7 shots per 90 over the course of the Serie A season so far and as with Kvaratskhelia, you would imagine that the fact they have a weaker defence up against them should see that line covered.
Predictions:
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – 4+ shots @ 1.40
David Neres – 4+ shots @ 1.73
Foul Stats: Verona pair can concede multiple fouls in defensive rearguard
This is going to be a tough assignment for Verona and their players are likely to be in a defensive mindset where they will be looking to be strong in challenges and try to contain their opponents. Two players stand out in terms of foul potential in this match with the first of those being Tomas Suslov, the man who usually operates in a 10 position in the Verona side but who might naturally have to be a little deeper here and therefore out of position fouls could occur.
Suslov averages 2.9 fouls per 90 minutes in Serie A and given the way the game is likely to play out, you would have to think he would match that average, if not better it, so the 1.67 for him to commit 2 or more fouls looks appealing. At the other end of the pitch, Diego Coppola only averages 1.4 fouls committed per 90 minutes, but he has 7 bookings for the season, he’ll be against a tough man to handle in Romelu Lukaku and is primed for a couple of fouls here.
That price is 2.2 for this match and while he would need to be above his average for the season, if Napoli are going to have most of the ball and be in attacking areas all the time, that looks perfectly possible.
Predictions:
Tomas Suslov – 2+ fouls @ 1.67
Diego Coppola – 2+ fouls @ 2.20
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / DeFodi Images
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