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Sassuolo v Cagliari Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

May 18, 2024
Tactical Preview, Serie A Analysis

Sassuolo v Cagliari

Kick Off: Sunday 19th May, 11:30

Competition: Serie A

Watch Live: TNT Sports 1

 

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It’s last chance saloon for Sassuolo as they host Cagliari in a vital clash in Serie A’s thrilling relegation battle on Sunday lunchtime. With two matches of the season, both of these teams are in enormous trouble. Sassuolo sit second from bottom on 29 points, but with five teams still within striking distance before time runs out for the campaign, survival remains entirely possible.

 

 

Cagliari, meanwhile, are in a more comfortable position – but only just. The Sardinians sit only one point clear of the bottom three, with even the slightest slip putting them into the red zone before meeting Fiorentina on the final day of the season. This is a game in which there is all to play for.

 

Here is the best advice for your Sassuolo v Cagliari Bet Builder.

 

An unpredictable affair in store

 

Life was breathed into Sassuolo’s relegation battle in their last home game, when they overcame Inter 1-0 in arguably the biggest upset of the Serie A season. Prior to that, they were sliding meekly towards the drop zone, having won only one of their previous 15 matches, a 1-0 home success over Frosinone.

 

Last week, they reverted to type in terms of their result as they suffered a 2-1 loss at Genoa. Their performance, though, deserved better. Captain Gian Marco Ferrari and his team-mates fashioned the more numerous chances and took the lead through an Andrea Pinamonti penalty in the first half, but buckled after the break.

 

 

Sassuolo, though, created 1.7xG. This was the first time they had been above 1 in this particular metric for three games. They also won seven corners, which bucked a trend that had seen them win two in three of their previous five. 

 

Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone five without a win, which has dragged them into trouble. There have been highs in this sequence. A pair of 2-2 draws against Inter Milan and Juventus were creditable results, but equally, there was a thumping 5-1 loss against AC Milan that they will have to get over.

 

At least Claudio Ranieri’s side are creating chances, though. In each of their last five games, including three fixtures against teams in the top five, they have created over 1xG. This is certainly a positive, but the big negative is that their opponents have outdone them in this capacity in four of these fixtures.

 

Player Analysis: Eldor Shomurodov

 

Incredibly, Cagliari’s opponents have consistently outperformed them on xG away from home. They are on a 13-match streak on the road in Serie A which this has held. Meanwhile, they have won at least three corners in eight of their last nine league matches, with the exception of their trip to Inter.

 

Prediction:

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75

Cagliari to win Over 3.5 corners @ 1.44

Lauriente to carry a threat

 

Sassuolo’s goal threat is carried by Andrea Pinamonti, who has 11 strikes for the season and was their hero in last weekend’s victory. He is shouldering a large burden as Domenico Berardi, who has nine for the campaign, is out with a serious injury.

 

In terms of raw shots, the man to keep an eye on is Armand Lauriente. The winger has 2.67 shots per 90 and 0.96 on target. He has been let off the leash in recent weeks, managing eight shots in goal in his last five matches, including one each in the last two games.  At 1.8 to continue this run, he looks excellent value and should also be considered as an anytime scorer given Cagliari’s leaky defence and the fact he has scored four in six. At 3.75 to find the net, the Frenchman is good value.

 

Pinamonti, meanwhile, may be the leading scorer, but he relies on efficiency rather than volume. He manages only 0.57 shots on target per 90, making him poor value at 1.33 for that run to continue. Kristian Thorstvedt is the other home player to watch but similarly he does not offer the value of Lauriente. All three, however, did find the target at least once last week, an eventuality that can be backed at 3.73 in this game.

 

 

Unlike the home side, there is no significant individual to provide a goal threat for Cagliari. Nicolas Viola has 0.41 goals per 90 this season but typically operates as a super sub and was left on the bench last weekend following a minor injury. Zito Luvumbo offers the greatest volume of shots for Genoa, meanwhile. He has 48 for the season or 2.36 per 90. When it comes to hitting the target, he has 0.69 per 90. 

 

Eldor Shomurodov is arguably the one to watch at a price of 1.73 to make one shot on target. He has won a starting place in the past couple of months and mustered shots on target against both Inter and Juventus, while he also had a couple of efforts in Milan last week.

 

Predictions:

Armand Lauriente to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.8
Eldor Shomurodov to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.73

 

Doig to see yellow

 

Sassuolo don’t post a bad disciplinary record, but given the precipice they find themselves on as well as their recent history against Cagliari, this is a game that could get spicy.

 

In their 2-1 loss in Sardinia, they saw six yellow cards plus had Ruan dismissed for two bookings. The eight cards they were shown on that occasion are twice as many as they have seen in all but one Serie A match this term. Equally, the 15 fouls they conceded are a joint-highest tally for them in the league.

 

 

More typically, Sassuolo are seeing just 1.91 cards per match domestically compared to their opponents’ 2.14. Kristian Thorstvedt is the likeliest criminal. He conceded two free kicks in the previous meeting and averages 1.44 per 90. At 2.0, he provides strong value.

 

In terms of cautions, Josh Doig of Sassuolo is a player to watch. He has picked up seven yellow cards this season, including on each of the five occasions he has committed multiple fouls. Rather than backing him giving away free kicks, then, look for him to pick up a card at 4.2.

 

Nahitan Nandez is priced at just 1.08 to give away one free kick in this game and with good reason. The Uruguayan has given away 2.04 fouls per 90 in Serie A and is on a nine-match run of committing an offence.

 

Player Analysis: Marash Kumbulla

 

While the odds on one foul are weak, the odds on him giving away two at 1.53 are excellent. He has given away multiple fouls in seven of his last nine, even though he has often been replaced with around 15 minutes to go. 

 

On the off chance Gaetano Oristanio features from the outset, he is well worth backing to commit a couple of fouls. He averages 3.01 per 90, and even if he rarely lasts that long, he has committed at least two indiscretions in six of his last nice starts.

 

Predictions:

Kristian Thorstvedt to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.22

Kristian Thorstvedt to commit 2 or more fouls @ 2.0

Josh Doig to be shown a card @ 4.2

Nahitan Nandez to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.53

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Alessandro Sabattini / Getty Images

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