Fiorentina v Roma Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Fiorentina v Roma
Kick Off: Sunday 27th October, 19:45
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
For the very latest expert football betting predictions, covering matches across every top European division, head over to Andy’s Bet Club. You’ll find several free tools to aid your punting, including cheat sheets, as well as a range of high value football tips.
Fiorentina host Roma on Sunday in an eye-catching Serie A clash that pits two of the league’s draw specialists against each other. La Viola may only have lost once this season, but going into the weekend they found themselves six points off the pace of leaders Napoli after drawing four of eight matches. With three wins in their last four, it seems they have unpicked this problem.
Il Fuoco del Flaco: Andrea Colpani Looks Set to Rejuvenate Raffaele Palladino’s Fiorentina
Roma, though, have also drawn four times, but the capital side are under pressure travelling to Florence after failing to win either of their last two domestically, meaning they have dropped to tenth in the standings.
Match stats: Draw specialists at work
Fiorentina head into this match as marginal 2.5 favourites to get the win, with Roma priced slightly longer at 2.75. Based on recent form, this flatters the visiting side. The Viola, after all, are on a four-match win streak, and while opponents in this sequence might have been unimpressive, a 2-1 win over Milan at home prior to the international break cannot be overlooked.
The hosts, meanwhile, have also generated at least 1.5xG in seven of their last eight matches. This has been reflected by the fact they have scored at least twice in seven of these games, not to mention ten in their last two alone.
Can Roma do enough to quell an in-form attack? Although they have allowed only seven goals in their last nine, their xGA during this run is 10.4. What sums up the visitors, meanwhile, is that their xG and xGA in each of their last three Serie A matches has been exactly identical: each match has been incredibly balanced. Another factor making it difficult to pick between the sides is that both games last season ended in score draws.
AS Roma Part Ways with Daniele de Rossi after Eight Months in Charge
With all this in mind, a similar outcome is likely on this occasion. Backing Fiorentina with a small handicap or via the Double Chance or Draw No Bet markets may be a small price but protects against the very possible outcome of a draw. Meanwhile, both teams to score also looks a strong possibility, despite neither club having an extensive record of this outcome this season.
Predictions:
1X @ 1.36
Fiorentina DNB @ 1.75
BTTS @ 1.73
Shot stats: Pelligrini to find the net
It’s impossible to ignore the contribution that Moise Kean has made to Fiorentina when it comes to shots. With 31 in Serie A this season, he sits second in the league and is fourth when it comes to shots per 90, boasting 4.21 in this particular category.
Incredibly, he has at least four shots in each of his last seven Fiorentina appearances, including four in just 45 minutes against Lecce last weekend. Carrying an ankle injury, though, it is doubtful he will continue this streak. Nevertheless, the price of 1.53 on him hitting the target just once appears decent value. He is not known for his accuracy but he has only played twice for his club this season without hitting the target.
Marin Pongračić: Shining the Spotlight on Fiorentina’s New Defender
Andrea Colpani is the other big threat for the hosts. With 18 shots at a rate of 2.95 per 90, he has managed at least two shots in six of eight Serie A starts. Not used at all in midweek, it seems Fiorentina are gearing up to use him in a big way here.
Roma are dominated offensively by Artem Dovbyk (21 shots) and Lorenzo Pellegrini (18), with a whole host of players hovering around the ten-shot mark. Pellegrini is a particularly nice option here. Used only as a substitute against Dynamo Kyiv in midweek, he has a shot on target in four of his last five, including each of his last three starts, for Roma and will likely operate in an attacking midfield area.
Paolo Dybala is posting more shots per 90 than any Roma player who has played at least half their league minutes with 2.75 but his tendency to be a replacement – or be replaced early when he starts – means the value on him is limited.
Predictions:
Moise Kean to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.53
Lorenzo Pellegrini to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.83
Foul stats: Roma to make fouls, Fiorentina to get cards
No Serie A team has been fouled more times this season as Fiorentina. The Viola have drawn 124 fouls, level with Bologna. Although centre-back Dodo leads the way with 14, the attacking players are apt at winning free-kicks. Edoardo Bove (14), Kean (13), Colpani (11) and Christian Kouane (11) all contribute heavily in this regard. Interestingly, it’s Roma’s defensive players who tend to give up the most fouls, with Evan Ndicka, Gianluca Mancini and Bryan Cristante all on 11.
Mario Hermoso: The Highly Coveted Defender Available on a Free
The capital side do have the second-smallest card count in Serie A, with 11 in eight games, but this combination suggests they will give up fouls in this fixture. Mancini is likely to be the player drawn into a physical battle with Kean. The centre-back has given up at least one foul in each of his last five, and having been unused in midweek will likely have a sizable role to play.
With two fouls in his last three Serie A matches he has completed, at 1.83 to give up at least two fouls, he is a good price. Kean, after all, has been fouled twice or more in eight of the 12 matches he has played more than 15 minutes in this season.
Finally, look for Fiorentina to receive more cards than their guests. Only once across their 11 matches this season have Roma picked up more cards than their opponents. This was against Genoa in September. They have drawn twice in this regard while they have seen their rivals earn more cards on eight occasions.
With that priced at a very sizable 2.8, there is some value to be had given that Fiorentina are picking up cards at a rate of 2.38 per match compared to Roma’s 1.38 in Serie A.
Predictions:
Giovanni Mancini to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.83
Fiorentina to receive more cards @ 2.8
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Getty Images
18+ Gamble Responsibly