Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Kick Off: Sunday 22nd September, 16:30
Competition: Bundesliga
Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
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The standout game of the Bundesliga weekend sees Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund in a clash between two clubs who have been in Champions League action this week.
Stuttgart faced the sterner test as they travelled to face defending champions Real Madrid, and although they suffered a 3-1 defeat, they were competitive and had a couple of refereeing decisions been more favourable towards them, they might well have taken something from the match.
Dortmund, meanwhile, claimed a 3-0 win in an entertaining match against Club Brugge as they continued their strong start to the season.
Match stats: All signs point to a thriller
Dortmund come into this form in the better form and yet are 2.8 to claim the points on the road. Nuri Sahin’s side have started the season with impressive swagger but were held scoreless in their only away Bundesliga match to date. However, they have won four of five overall and are coming into this game following that comfortable victory in Belgium.
By contrast, Stuttgart have picked up only a couple of wins in five competitive outings, one of which was against lower league opponents Preussen Munster in the DFB Pokal. Their only previous home game was a thriller against Mainz that finished 3-3.
Conceding goals has been something of a speciality for Stuttgart this season. Three times in the last five matches they have conceded exactly three goals. Given Dortmund have found the net on at least three occasions in three of five competitive matches, this suggests the guests will not have a problem being shut out.
Stuttgart’s strength, meanwhile, is going forward. They have scored in every game they have played this season and generated a massive 3.8xG in their aforementioned home match with Mainz.
Last season, these fixtures were tight. Stuttgart won 2-1 at home in the Bundesliga plus 2-0 in the DFB Pokal, while they also pinched a 1-0 success in Dortmund. Form points to a very different type of match this time around, with BVB looking sharper and certainly capable of scoring.
Prediction:
Dortmund @ 2.8
Both teams to score @ 1.36
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.4
Shot stats: Value on Leweling and Adeyemi
When it comes to shooting, Stuttgart are dominated by centre-forward Deniz Undav, who is coming off the back of a goalscoring performance against Real Madrid in midweek – the third match in succession in which he has scored.
Undav has had a shot on target in all but one of his last seven matches for club and country. In each of his last couple of Bundesliga matches, he has had three, which is available at 3.3 against Dortmund.
VfB do not otherwise have too many other obvious threats in terms of shots, despite Ermedin Demirovic top scoring in the Bundesliga for them with three goals. Remarkably, he has only three shots on target so odds of 1.22 on him having one or more are unappealing.
Jamie Leweling has five shots on target – 100% of the efforts he has had in the Bundesliga – and has had multiple efforts on goal in each of his last three games. The versatile attacking midfielder had five shots, including four on target, against Real Madrid, so odds on him having one on target here are appetising.
Fellow midfielder Enzo Millot, meanwhile, has seven total shots (two on target) at a rate of 3.04 per 90. He is 1.91 to maintain this.
Dortmund’s threat is not nearly as clearcut. Indeed, Karim Adeyemi leads the way in terms of shots on target with just three. The odds on the wide attacker to get one or more shots on target here stand at 1.83 – a terrific price given he has achieved this in his last three matches. He is also 1.5 to have two or more shots.
Serhou Guirassy will inevitably be one to watch against his former club. He had four shots and one on target against Heidenheim last week. His game time is likely to be limited, however.
Predictions:
Jamie Leweling to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.36
Karim Adeyemi to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.8
Foul stats: Karazor in the thick of the action
Dortmund are among the Bundesliga bad boys, having picked up 10 cards this season, nine yellow and one red. In terms of fouls committed, though, they are very much in the middle of the pack, with 11.3 per game.
Their cards received figure, however, is dramatically skewed by the fact that they picked up eight in a single fixture against Werder Bremen.
On the face of it, then, Stuttgart are somewhat better behaved. They have seen seven yellow cards and have given up only 28 fouls in their three games to date.
If that Bremen fixture is erased, though, Dortmund have not received more cards than their opponents in any individual fixture this season.
In terms of individual players, look for Atakan Karazor to be heavily involved in the middle of the park. There has not been a game this season when he has not given up and won at least one foul. He has specialised in winning free kicks, though, doing so on multiple occasions in each Bundesliga match to date.
Julian Ryerson is Dortmund’s leading criminal. He has given away eight fouls this season at a rate of 2.67 per 90. Don’t expect him to maintain this rate in this game. He goes up against Undav, who does not tend to win or commit many fouls.
Similarly, Nico Schlotterbeck is another leading protagonist for Dortmund in the Fouls Market but is liable to square up against Leweling, an opponent who does not draw many free kicks.
Pascal Gross is a candidate to give away a foul at 1.83 as he goes up against Karazor in midfield. He has committed fouls in three of his last five for club and country. Similarly, Emre Can is also a wildcard, but at a price of 1.17 looks too short to back given he gave away only 1.24 fouls per 90 last term.
Predictions:
Atakan Karazor to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.36
Pascal Gross to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.83
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / BSR Agency / Getty Images
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