Igor Thiago: Brentford’s Ideal Ivan Toney Replacement, or the Premier League’s Next Wesley Moraes?
Heading into the 2023/24 Premier League season, and in the whole year prior to that, one main question has engulfed all the discussion surrounding Brentford Football Club, how will they replace Ivan Toney? Or, more specifically who will they replace him with.
With just a couple of weeks left before the start of the campaign, the England international hasn’t actually left The Bees yet, but, whilst his eight-month ban for breaching The FA’s betting regulations means it may not be for £70million+ fee that was initially touted for his services, Toney himself has stated his desire to play for a “big club” and so it is widely expected that he will be sold come the end of the summer.
Even if, for some remarkable reason, Toney doesn’t have any buyers, his contract is still due to expire next June, so the signing of a replacement will definitely be required eventually. And, what many people either haven’t realised or have simply forgotten, is that Thomas Frank’s side have already secured that replacement. In the form of Igor Thiago.
The West London club announced the signing of Thiago from Club Bruges in February 2024, with the striker joining for a club–record €33m on a five-year deal commencing on July 1st. Whilst that fee may ostensibly seem as though Brentford have abandoned their ‘Moneyball’ strategy of signing cheap, undervalued, talent from somewhat unknown markets, Thiago’s background suggests the contrary – showing that Brentford have maintained their heralded data-heavy approach, they’re just doing it on a higher scale, at a higher level.
At the time of the official signing, the Brazilian had been playing in the Bulgarian second-tier for Ludogorets reserves under two years earlier, and his departure saw Club Bruges gain their second highest all-time sale for a player they had signed for €8m just over six months prior.
That pretty much sums up the unprecedented nature of the 23-year-old’s career thus far, but how did that nomadic journey transpire?
Thiago joined Cruzeiro in 2019 and made his senior debut in the following year, but didn’t make a significant impact in his home nation, scoring four goals in just under 2,000 minutes (roughly 20 90’s) in the second division. His performances were enough to impress Ludogorets though, who picked him up for €1.3m in March 2022, initially allowing him to bed into their reserve side – where he scored three in four games – before integrating him into the first-team setup.
He only made two appearances in their title-winning 2021/22 campaign, but burst into life the following season. He accumulated 15 league goals and eight assists in 32 appearances as The Eagles secured what was their twelfth successive league title. Interest from multiple clubs – including Brentford – soon followed, but Thiago opted for a move to Belgian giants Bruges, with Brentford still keeping a close eye on his progress instead.
And, despite Thiago’s rocky first six months, Thomas Frank and co. were certainly glad they did so. Wearing the number 99, Thiago scored four in his first six Jupiler Pro League matches, before going on a nine-game goalless streak as Bruges won just twice. Upon breaking that streak though, Thiago instantly regained his ruthlessness in front of goal, finding the net 12 times in eight league games.
He then bagged two in starting eight of Bruges’ final ten, as his side went unbeaten throughout Belgium’s championship play-off round to claim their 19th league title – making it three league-title wins for three in each of Thiago’s top flight campaigns. All of that is without mentioning his performances in continental football. Thiago scored five throughout Bruges’ run to the Europa Conference League semi-final, a tie in which Thiago scored a remarkable solo effort in the first leg away at Fiorentina.
It was a goal that encapsulated all of Thiago’s best abilities – power, physicality, and clinical finishing. With Nicky Hayen’s side down 2-1 and pinned back with ten-men, a desperate punt forward was sent towards the isolated Thiago, up against two centre-backs, with three Fiorentina midfielders behind him and not a single teammate in sight.
The 6’3” forward wasn’t phased however, capitalising on poor defensive judgement in letting the ball bounce to latch onto it himself, head it ahead of him into the right corner of the penalty area, and expertly lace the bouncing ball into the far left bottom corner.
That goal, and his assist to Hans Vanaken in the second leg, ultimately wasn’t enough to see his side through – they only narrowly lost out 4-3 on aggregate to an 85th minute penalty – but did see him earn the competitions’ young player of the tournament, and thus give Brentford even more reason to believe he could be the perfect successor to Ivan Toney.
But what exactly is Thiago’s profile and skillset, and how does it compare The Englishman’s?
Well, his new head coach states it best. Speaking on his new signing at the time of his announcement earlier this year, Frank stated:
“[Thiago is a] very exciting striker who fits the role in our team, he is hard working, a very good pressing player, he’s also a physical presence, very good in the box and can link the play”
The traits Frank mentions outline the role’s importance in his side, with the striker’s contributions coming in much more than goals alone Whether it be linking play, holding up the ball as an outlet, creating chances themselves, or even defending in their own box with headed clearances, the striker (i.e. Toney) is vital to his side in every aspect of play.
Therefore, when trying to identify whether Thiago will be able to adequately replace Toney, this all-round contribution must be considered when comparing the two forwards, rather than just focusing on their goal scoring abilities.
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And, looking at Opta data courtesy of FBRef – with the obvious caveat of the obvious quality disparity between the English and Belgian top flights – Thiago’s last year for Bruges stacks up pretty well when compared to Toney’s 2022/23 Premier League season (2023/24 would be an unfair comparison due to his ban).
In terms of linking play, Thiago’s total passes (20.68) and progressive passes (1.01) completed per 90 minutes aren’t quite as high as Toney’s (24 and 2.4), but his 1.46 progressive carries and almost one successful take-on shows how he can transition the ball forwards in different ways – without help from his teammates.
This may not be as easy against higher quality defenders in the Premier League, but his six touches in the penalty area and seven progressive passes received exemplify how he’s adept at being a target man like outlet for his side, as does his 2.5 aerial duels won per game. The former two figures are both higher than Toney’s whilst the latter is only just under the 28-year-old’s 3.32 aerials won.
That’s incredibly encouraging for Brentford fans, and indicates that even if Thiago’s numbers do expectedly drop due to his side seeing less of the ball (Brentford averaged the seventh lowest possession last season versus Bruges second best), he will still be capable of replicating Toney’s role in the side.
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Furthermore, whilst seeing less of the ball is typically a concern for attackers, it may actually bring to light Thiago’s hard work out-of-possession, with almost all of his defensive actions (e.g. tackles, interceptions, blocks, clearances) ranking him amongst the best 50 percent of strikers – despite his side majorly dominating the ball last year.
Although Frank may have to tone down this eagerness ever so slightly, as it has seen Thiago accumulate 18 yellow cards across all competitions over the past two seasons. So, with Thiago’s on-ball traits, hold-up play, and work out-of-possession now covered, it’s time to discuss the most important facet of any strikers’ game – goalscoring.
As one would expect from his prior record, in front of goal is clearly where Thiago thrives, and, that means specifically in front of goal. That’s because all of his 18 league goals last season came inside the penalty area, seven of which were in the six-yard box, whilst just four of his 70 shots were taken from outside the box. For reference, Toney scored three from 24 shots outside the box in 2022/23.
Furthermore, with Thiago only taking a lowly 2.3 shots per 90 from a range of just over 12 yards on average, this meant the average quality of each striker was extremely high. Precisely, taking into account all the non-penalty expected goals (npxG) Thiago accumulated in continental and league matches over the past year, each shot taken had a 21% chance of finding the net (i.e. 0.21 npxG per shot). This puts him in the top four percent of strikers playing in similar level competitions.
So, it’s clear that Thiago can find good chances, but can he take them? Well, Yes. Thiago scored at the exact same rate. That is one goal in every five shots and one every two on target.
As mentioned, this may subside as he gains less opportunities against higher quality opponents, but the above stats indicate his ability to get into lucrative positions and be clinical once in them. And, despite all goals being from inside the box, they still include a wide range of situations and finishes.
He’s adept at finding space with clever movement in congested areas, running in behind to go one-versus-one with a ‘keeper, whilst he has a particular knack for being in the right place at the right time. From here, he prefers striking with his right, but can still produce with either foot – whether it be by slotting it home across goal, powerfully finishing first time, or producing a deft chip over an onrushing ‘keeper.
Notably for Brentford, he’s also clinical from the penalty spot, although a minor downside may be that he actually looks at the ball as he takes it, unlike a certain English international. That is all having not considered what is arguably Thiago’s most potent goalscoring threat though: his aerial ability.
Thiago’s headed attempts use the perfect balance of positioning, physicality, and accuracy. His intelligent positioning allows him to frequently find space between defenders, he exploits his physicality excellently to outmuscle or tower above his man, and his ability to both use the pace of a cross and generate forceful neck strength mean his headers frequently beat goalkeepers with power and accuracy.
Showing this, his four headed goals last season was double what Toney managed in the season prior, and will undoubtedly be a lethal weapon for Brentford in the coming campaigns given their previous record from set-pieces.
Albeit with the help of now-Chelsea’s expert set-piece coach Bernardo Cueva, Frank’s side are renowned for their innovative set-piece routines, and have scored 41 Premier League 41 goals from said situations since 2021/22, as per WhoScored.
So, that explains how Thiago could benefit Brentford over the coming seasons, but can he realistically transition to a new environment as seamlessly as he has done in the past?
Well, the simple answer is only time will tell, but the history of similar transfers suggests it won’t be easy.
In January 2023, Paul Onuachu’s €18m move to Southampton from Genk off the back of 79 goals across four seasons in Belgium saw the 6’7” Nigerian fail to score in four starts and 11 Premier League appearances for the eventually relegated Saints. Meanwhile, Wesley Moreas didn’t fair much better than that at Aston Villa three years prior,in what was a near identical move to that of Thiago’s to Brentford.
At the time of the €25m deal in July 2019, Wesley was a 22-years old Brazilian striker, had just finished a ten plus goal season for Club Bruges, and had also arrived as the English sides club record signing.
But, the now-free agent would end up back at Bruges on loan just two years later, following a mediocre five-goals in his first 21 league matches before suffering a catastrophic knee injury that kept him out for the next year and a half, never to start a game for The Villans again.
Unfortunately, Thiago’s start to life in London has somewhat followed a similar unfortunate pattern, as he first arrived with a right knee injury that kept him out from early may until late June, before then suffering another injury to his meniscus in the same leg during his debut in a 5-2 friendly win against Wimbledon – in which he scored a brace.
Brentford have since announced this will see him absent until late 2024, and thus Toney is looking increasingly likely to stay at the Gtech Community stadium this summer. Although at first glance that seems like a negative for Thiago, it would potentially be a blessing in disguise, as it reduces pressure upon him and provides more time to recover from injury and find his footing in the English top flight.
And, thankfully for Brentford fans, everything discussed above suggests Thiago will still be able to find form upon his return to fitness, unlike Wesley. The former never accumulated the goal tally the latter has, nor demonstrated the same proficiency on a European stage, indicating he was not as ready as Thiago is for the step up anyway.
As such, there is more than enough reason to believe things may work out better for Thiago, and, as a 23-year-old Brazilian with one Belgian and two Bulgarian league titles to his name, if there’s anything he has proven in his career thus far, it’s that his trajectory simply cannot be predicted based of the similar players that came before him.
At the time of writing, a further scan is still to follow and Brentford have yet to state the extent but reports from The Athletic suggest they fear he may miss the first few weeks of the campaign. However, unlike Wesley, everything discussed above suggests Thiago will still be able to find form upon his return to fitness, whilst the former never having accumulated the goal tally the latter has, nor demonstrated the same proficiency on a European stage indicates he was not as ready Thiago was for the step up anyway.
As such, there is more than enough reason to believe things may work out better for Thiago, and, as a 23-year-old Brazilian with one Belgian and two Bulgarian league titles to his name, if there’s anything he has proven in his career thus far, it’s that his trajectory simply cannot be predicted based of the similar players that came before him.
By: Travis Levison / @TravisLevison67
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Christopher Lee / Getty Images