Orlando City v Atlanta United Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Orlando City v Atlanta United
Kick Off: Sunday 24th November, 20:30
Competition: MLS
Watch Live: Apple TV
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With the international action behind us now, the attention turns back to the playoffs over in MLS where the Eastern Conference offering on Sunday sees two rival sides battling it out for a spot in the Conference final when Orlando City host Atlanta United.
The visitors will have good recent memories of a trip to the Inter & Co Stadium as it was here where they had to win on Decision Day just to make the postseason. They did and they are still here to tell the tale having disposed of the Supporters’ Shield winners Inter Miami in the previous round.
Orlando City were one of the hottest teams in MLS prior to that defeat to Atlanta in the last game of the regular season but they bounced back to take care of Charlotte FC over three matches and were they to win this game they would host the Conference final next weekend.
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This one is perfectly set up for a tasty night of football as both sides look to move to within two wins of getting their hands on the MLS Cup trophy.
Match stats: Atlanta merit respect in what could be a tight clash
Orlando City are around the 1.67 mark to get the win inside 90 minutes but when you consider that Atlanta United won both of the regular season meetings between the pair that feels a little on the tight side.
Orlando have been in good touch since the Leagues Cup break though and are now the highest ranked side left in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket. They have won eight of their last 11 matches with two that they didn’t win playing away to Columbus Crew when they lost on penalties in the middle match of the three against Charlotte FC in the previous round of the playoffs.
Orlando needed a penalty to equalise after 12 minutes of injury time in the deciding rubber against Charlotte though so all of a sudden it looks like they might be starting to feel the pressure.
Atlanta United headed into the postseason with everything a bonus given how unlikely it looked for them to even be in the playoffs. They have since won in Montreal and took care of Inter Miami over three matches and the Five Stripes will fancy their chances of more success here.
Atlanta have caught fire in recent games with five wins in their last six with the loss in that period being the opener against Miami where they were shattered from two road trips earlier in the week.
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While Orlando finished the season strong they were only 7-4-6 at home in the regular season while Atlanta were 4-6-7 but they have two road wins in the playoffs to their name. Orlando look plenty short enough here. They have only scored four goals in their last four games and an Atlanta defence which has handled Lionel Messi and co over three games can keep Orlando honest.
Atlanta are 1.36 with a two goal handicap start so even an Orlando win by a goal gets the bet paid out and that looks a solid wager. If you are looking for something a little bolder, Atlanta on the double chance at 2.10 is worth a punt.
Charlotte FC took Orlando to penalties in the last two of their three-match series and Atlanta have a greater goal threat than Charlotte. Atlanta have won both regular meetings between the two so they know the formula for getting the job done and can force at least extra time here, if not the win inside 90 minutes.
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If you are hoping for a high scoring game this might not be the one for you. Orlando tend to trust their defence and hope that their mercurial attacking talent will get the job done for them while Atlanta are likely to sit in and pack the middle of the pitch and hope to grab something on the break.
In what is likely to be a tense and nervy affair given the reward that is on offer the 1.50 on under 3.5 goals, which has landed in the last eight games here, looks a big price.
Predictions:
Atlanta (+2) @ 1.36
Atlanta/Draw double chance @ 2.10
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.50
Shots stats: Ojeda and Seba the men to focus on in the shots battle
A big match always has shots markets priced up and two players who are worth focusing on here are Martin Ojeda of Orlando City and Seba Lobzhanidze of Atlanta United.
Ojeda has really come to the party for Orlando since he has been moved into the number 10 role behind either Duncan McGuire or Ramiro Enrique and he will pick up the spaces in front of the defence that allow him to get shots away. He gets into the box too and hit the target in both home games against Charlotte FC. He also had eight shots, four of which were on target in the Decision Day clash between these two. Take the 1.40 on him hitting the target.
For Atlanta United, the MVP of the postseason so far has been their Georgia international Lobzhanidze. He scored their goal in the first game against Inter Miami and is the player who carries them up the pitch to either create for others or go for goal himself. Lobzhanidze opened the scoring in the Decision Day clash here on an evening where he had another shot blocked on its way to goal too. Atlanta will rest on him a lot here so the 1.67 for a shot on target looks big.
Finally, the 2.75 on Derrick Williams to have a shot of any kind looks too big. He is a powerful threat in the opposing box on set plays, as Inter Miami found out when he levelled the game against them in match two, and he has had 21 shots this season. They equate to 0.72 shots per game so the 2.75 on him getting an effort away here looks big against not the biggest defence in the world.
Predictions:
Martin Ojeda – over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.4
Seba Lobzhanidze – over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.67
Derrick Williams – over 0.5 shots @ 2.75
Cards stats: Expect the referee to be busy in feisty clash
The stakes are high now and Armando Villarreal could be a busy man in the middle for this match. He is a card-happy ref who likes to stamp his authority on the big matches as early as possible. In 16 MLS games this season, he has issued 84 yellow cards and five red cards and seems to be particularly grumpy when refereeing Orlando games having reffed them twice and dished out eight and seven cards in that time.
Both these teams have defensive midfielders who aren’t strangers to putting their foot in and the centre-backs look to be strong and can easily fall foul of an official. There were six cards when these two met the first time around and while the Decision Day clash went relatively incident free, we should remember that Orlando had already secured their spot in the postseason and had their eye on the following week. That won’t be the case here so the 1.73 on over 4.5 cards being issued in this match looks like a great way to boost any bet builder selection.
In terms of a player to be booked, Cesar Araujo has picked up 11 cautions this season. The Orlando defensive midfielder will be assigned the task of stopping the Atlanta counters and it wouldn’t take much for an indiscretion which gets him in the book. He averages 1.67 fouls per match and you would think in a game of this magnitude he’ll perform above the average. Take the 3.50 for him to go in the book.
Predictions
Over 4.5 cards @ 1.73
Cesar Araujo to be shown a card @ 3.50
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Karl Bridgeman – FIFA
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