The Beast from the East – The Rise and Stall, of the Saudi Pro League
It might be boring by modern standards, but this summer’s transfer window still had some surprises, whether it was Victor Osimhen’s move to Turkey, Brighton’s spending spree, or Liverpool only making two signings (one of which was loaned immediately back to his former club). However, one thing that probably doesn’t come as a surprise is that for the second season running, several football clubs in the Saudi Pro League splashed the cash.
It might not be as much as last summer, but clubs in the Gulf State still spent £398m on transfer fees this summer. The league has now spent £1.22bn on transfer fees since 2023, the 5th most in the world. But for a league outside Europe that’s not sustainable, right? Wrong.
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That’s because we’re currently witnessing a nation attempt to take over the world’s biggest sport. Many have tried, they all failed. This time, it’s different. The Saudi Arabians have the money and the ambition, so will it work?
From backwater to a global powerhouse
But first, to understand why this is happening you need some context about Saudi Arabia. Established in 1923, Saudi Arabia started life as a poor desert kingdom filled with nothing but sand, then oil was struck in 1938. By 1976, it became the world’s largest oil producer. Managing the economy was simple: extract the oil, spend the money.
Sadly, like all good things, crude oil certainly doesn’t last forever. By the end of the 2010s, the Saudi government realised they’d have to prepare for the day the oil ran out. To help do that, they’d have to fix their image problem in the international community and generate some good PR. So, they introduced Vision 2030.
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- What – Boost tourism revenue, make Saudi Arabia into a country people want to visit.
- How – Use their sovereign wealth fund, the PIF to invest in different assets.
- Why – Get the tourists (and their money) through the door, reduce the reliance on oil and fix their image problem.
The PIF is the Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia with total estimated assets of US$925 billion. It was created in 1971 for the purpose of utilizing the profits from the oil to make investments on the country’s behalf. A key part of the plan was to become the home of global sports. To do that, the PIF:
- Gave the world’s most famous boxers large purses to fight in Saudi Arabia
- Became a host country of several major E-sports tournaments
- Started their own golf association, LIV Golf.
While each of these was a success, they were only small parts of the plan. The Saudis wanted a big fish, they wanted to take over football. The plan was simple:
- Create a domestic league to rival those in Europe.
- Host a World Cup before 2040
- Ensure the Saudi national team is able to compete at that World Cup
Easy, right? Actually, if you’ve got limitless funds, it is. Except, nobody cared. The Saudi Pro League, established in 1976, was nothing more than a ‘retirement home’ , a final payday for aging mid-level players. Unsurprisingly, fans weren’t interested. Average attendance during 2021/22 was around 9k, the same as England’s League One. Then, towards the end of 2022, the situation changed.
First, Saudi Arabia’s neighbour Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup. While it had its problems, it showed an Arabic country could host a World Cup, and if the football was good enough fans would swarm. Second, Al-Nassr signed Cristiano Ronaldo to a 2.5-year deal worth a reported £200m a year.
Given that domestic fans turned out in droves for the World Cup, and the figurehead of the new and improved Saudi Pro League was already on the payroll, the PIF decided to help. In early 2023 they announced they’d taken an ownership stake in the leagues four biggest teams:
- Al-Hilal
- Al-Nassr
- Al-Ahli
- Al-Ittihad
The limitless wealth of the PIF, combined with Ronaldo’s contract, was a sports columnist’s dream. Soon, Pro League clubs were linked with everyone, with transfer fees quoted that were similar to the GDP of a small country. They might have seemed like exaggerations at first, but they weren’t.
Saudi Pro League clubs spent £823m on players that summer, offering unheard of fees and salaries. Given the numbers, it’s easy to see why the stars flocked:
- N’Golo Kante – Transfer fee £0 – Salary £86m
- Karim Benzema – Transfer fee £0 – Salary £171m
- Neymar – Transfer fee £78m – Salary £138m
By the time their transfer window closed, Pro League clubs had a core of star players. They’d shown they could compete for talent, soon it would be for fans’ attention. Ronaldo, the spokesperson for the new league, predicted world domination, “Step-by-step I think this league will be among the top five leagues in the world”
Soon, reports of paying for Champions League entry began to surface. It looked like oil money was here to stay.
The great stall
Then, nothing. Why? Two reasons.
Firstly, the money wasn’t as effective as expected. While a lot of players did go to the Gulf, a lot didn’t. Both Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi rejected the Saudi Pro League despite being offered contracts in excess of $1bn.
Second, patience. European clubs’ global profile is built on having hordes of loyal local fans who’ve supported their team their entire life. The level of tribalism European football fans exhibit takes decades, centuries even, to build and comes from ties to the community. Why else would people give up their Saturday to travel 6 hours to see a 1-0 loss?
Not only is Saudi football new, it’s obvious the players are there for the money, so nobody cares, especially prospective fans, so they don’t bother. Despite spending nearly £1bn on transfer fees last summer, avg. weekly attendance last season (2023/24) was around 9k.
Combine this with cultural differences and perceived lesser competition) and it’s easy to see why players want to return to Europe. So it was all a blip?
The second attempt
Not quite, unlike other challenger leagues, the Saudi League has achieved a small, significant victory. Emerging leagues biggest problem is they can’t attract top talent. Top players that move there are risking something more valuable than money, their place in the national side, as Steven Bergwijn found out much to his cost.
Thankfully for league organisers, this has been an exception so far. Bergwijn might have lost his place in the Netherlands side, others have not only kept their place in their national squad, they’re thriving. Saudi Pro League clubs sent 14 players to the Euros, a lot of whom, like N’Golo Kante and Aymeric Laporte, excelled, showing that playing in the desert isn’t a death sentence.
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Their failure of the ‘put money in and watch fans flock’ model has also made clubs realise they need to recruit better. Signing aging stars on huge contracts might serve a purpose, but it’s not sustainable. So, clubs have changed their focus to players that are:
- Cheaper – 11 signings cost over £15m this year vs 22 last summer
- Younger – avg. age of 10 biggest incomings this year was 24.4 vs 28 last year
- South American – The Saudis finally got the memo. The best value young players come from South America.
- Saudi Arabian – Four of this summer’s 25 biggest transfers are Saudi nationals, compared to none last season.
So, now the transfer window has closed, what was once a convenient way to beat PSR has become a credible destination for top internationals, is full of young, exciting talent and can pay the highest wages.
Perhaps the most worrying thing, in a world where clubs finances are becoming reliant on TV deals, is they’re starting to sign players that deserve fans’ attention. Now it’s much easier to see why some clubs might be concerned.
By: Kieran Alder / @The_Own_Goal
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Anadolu Agency / Ali Al-Haji / AFP