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Newcastle United – Keep or Sell

July 18, 2024
Transfer Analysis, Premier League Analysis

Of all the teams in the Premier League, the last few years have definitely been strangest for Newcastle fans. Say what you will about their new Saudi owners (I’m not a fan) but from a footballing perspective they hard not to like. They slew the dragon that was Mike Ashley and brought the feel good factor back to the North East. Whether it was the hiring of Eddie Howe, down on his luck after his failure at Bournemouth, or the recruitment of the likes of Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes, the new Saudi ownership could do no wrong.

 

The result? A 4th placed finish and a hell of a party on the banks of Tyne. Newcastle were back where they belonged.

 

Well, we’re now a year later and reality has hit. Off the field, change is afoot. Amanda Staveley announced her and her husband are selling their stake in the team while the club’s also had to navigate the choppy waters of PSR, selling Elliot Anderson and Yankubah Minteh to Nottingham Forest and Brighton. On the field, injuries and poor form saw Newcastle limp to a 7th-placed finish in 2023/24, with Manchester United’s FA Cup win vs. Manchester City seeing the Red Devils qualify for Europe at the expense of the Magpies.

 

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Given the above, the club finds itself at a crossroads. The feel good era is over, the clubs initial momentum has gone and they find themselves at a cross roads, how do they progress? Given that, let’s have a look at their current squad and what needs to happen in order for Newcastle to get back to Europe.

 

Goalkeepers

 

Nick Pope

 

Position: Goalkeeper

Age: 32

Contract exp.: 2027

 

Pope’s first season at Newcastle couldn’t have gone better. He conceded less than a goal a game and propelling himself to an international call-up. Despite a shoulder injury in his 2nd season (restricted to 15 games), he’s still 7th in the Premier League in save percentage (72.4) and 3rd in goals against per 90 (1.07).

 

 

Given the importance of his position, it’s imperative for the club that Pope can recapture his first season form. If not, the club better start looking for a successor.

 

Verdict – Keep but start shopping for his successor

 

Odysseas Vlachodimos

 

Position: Goalkeeper

Age: 30

Contract exp.: 2027

 

Recently signed from Nottingham Forest, the Greece international should make an excellent backup and is likely to push Pope for the starting job, having previously started in goal for Benfica over the course of several seasons before heading to England last year.

 

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Verdict – Keep

 

Martin Dúbravka

 

Position: Goalkeeper

Age: 35

Contract exp.: 2025

 

The Slovakia international shipped nearly two goals a game this season as Pope’s understudy and that simply isn’t good enough. Hey won’t get much but they should sell.

 

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Verdict – Sell

 

Mark Gillespie

 

Position: Goalkeeper

Age: 32

Contract exp.: 2025

 

Apart from three appearances in the EFL Cup in 2020/21, he has failed to play a single match for the Magpies since his arrival in 2020, and a departure seems on the cards.

 

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Verdict – Sell

John Ruddy

 

Position: Goalkeeper

Age: 37

Contract exp.: 2025

 

At 37, he’s not going to be the starter. Let him play a season in the Scott Carson role.

 

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Verdict – Let his contract run out

 

Centre-backs

 

Sven Botman

 

Position: Centre-Back

Age: 24

Contract exp.: 2027

 

The Dutchman has been a rock at the back since he joined the Magpies from Lille. Blessed with that rarest of gifts, being left footed, Botman’s been the perfect do everything defender and his injury left a huge hole in the clubs back line.

 

Given the clubs PSR issues, I’d actually have advocated selling him over Bruno Guimaraes or Alexander Isak. Unfortunately, given his current ACL injury it’s unlikely he’ll get the kind of fee Newcastle are looking for.  

 

 

Verdict – Keep – Consider selling if he makes a full recovery

 

Lloyd Kelly

 

Position: Centre-Back

Age: 25

Contract exp.: 2029

 

A new signing, familiar with the manager from their time at Bournemouth, left-footed and technically gifted. Kelly isn’t going anywhere.

 

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Verdict – Keep

 

Fabian Schär

 

Position: Centre-Back

Age: 32

Contract exp.: 2025

 

Schar was as valuable as ever this season. Given a starting role due to the club’s injury issues, he proved to be an asset both defensively (led the club in clearances per 90 with 3.6) and going forward (4th in prog. passes with 133). One of the club’s longest serving players (since 2018) he should be rewarded with an extension if the price is right.

 

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Verdict – Extend for another year for the right price

 

Jamaal Lascelles

Position: Centre-Back

Age: 30

Contract exp.: 2025

 

While Schar proved he deserves to stay at Newcastle, Lascelles didn’t. He struggled to get on the pitch due to injury (16 games) and failed to convince when he was on it. As such, the club should either sell him this summer, or see if he can rebuild some of his value in a bit part role.

 

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Verdict – Sell or wait to extend for the right price

 

Fullbacks

 

Lewis Hall

 

Position: Left-Back

Age: 19

Contract exp.: 2027

 

Hall impressed enough on loan from Chelsea that the club made his deal permanent for £28m.

 

 

Verdict – Keep

 

Matt Targett

 

Position: Left-Back

Age: 28

Contract exp.: 2026

 

Restricted to 3 starts due to Howe’s use of Dan Burn at left back, the writing is on the wall.

 

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Verdict – Sell

 

Dan Burn

 

Position: Left-Back

Age: 32

Contract exp.: 2025

 

Burn spent this season showing that age really is just a number. Despite being the ripe old age of 32 the Blyth-born defender led the club in interceptions per game (1.1), even shutting down Kylian Mbappe in the Magpies’ 4-1 win over PSG.

 

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Verdict – Keep until he can’t run anymore

 

Jamal Lewis

 

Position: Left-Back

Age: 26

Contract exp.: 2025

 

Lewis has played for the club 9 times in 3 seasons. At 26, he’s still got the chance to rebuild his career and should be allowed to do so in the Championship.

 

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Verdict – Sell

 

Alex Murphy

 

Position: Left-Back

Age: 20

Contract exp.: 2027

 

3rd choice left back is likely to be a perfect position for the youngster to learn and develop.

 

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Verdict – Keep

 

Tino Livramento

 

Position: Right-Back

Age: 21

Contract exp.: 2028

 

A star in the making, most of Livramento’s appearances came off the bench this season. Did it matter? Of course not. He’s looked brilliant and he’s shown he’ll be more than capable of taking over from Kieran Trippier when the time comes.

 

 

Verdict – Keep

 

Kieran Trippier

 

Position: Right-Back

Age: 33

Contract exp.: 2025

 

While he’s definitely getting on, Trippier is still playing at a high level. He ranks 13th amongst Premier League right backs in tackles per 90 and is even still playing for England. Ideally, the club should extend him on a modest deal and wind down his game time in favour of Livramento, the perfect succession plan.

 

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Verdict – Keep and extend

 

Emil Krafth

 

Position: Right-Back

Age: 29

Contract exp.: 2025

 

Despite enjoying something of a renaissance this season, playing 19 games, it’s time for Krafth to go.

 

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Verdict – Sell

 

Harrison Ashby

 

Position: Right-Back

Age: 22

Contract exp.: 2027

 

Ashby, who enjoyed modest success on loan at Swansea, should be allowed another loan to get some minutes under his belt.

 

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Verdict – Loan

 

Midfielders

 

Bruno Guimarães

 

Position: Defensive Midfield

Age: 26

Contract exp.: 2028

 

The star man, he needs locking down for as long as possible. That being said, if someone’s prepared to offer north of £100m it’s going to be hard to turn down.

 

 

Verdict – Keep unless a rich club wants him for enough money

 

Sandro Tonali

 

Position: Defensive Midfield

Age: 24

Contract exp.: 2028

 

Despite being the club’s record signing, they’re not really sure what he has to offer given he’s currently banned for gambling offences until September 2024. It’s vital that he gets off and running in his second season at St. James’ Park.

 

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Verdict – Keep

 

Isaac Hayden

 

Position: Defensive Midfield

Age: 29

Contract exp.: 2026

 

He’s definitely still talented, he’s just not good enough to play at this level. Sell him and let him help someone else out.

 

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Verdict – Sell

 

Joelinton

 

Position: Central Midfield

Age: 27

Contract exp.: 2028

 

What sets the best managers apart is their ability to rebuild players’ careers. Formerly a failing striker, Eddie Howe’s rebuild Joelinton into a dominant central midfielder. Able to do a bit of everything, he’s been a perfect servant to the club and has formed the perfect partnership with Bruno Guimaraes. He should be a fixture in the northeast for years to come.

 

 

Verdict – Keep

 

Joe Willock

 

Position: Central Midfield

Age: 24

Contract exp.: 2027

 

Restricted to 9 appearances through injury, Willock shouldn’t be going anywhere. He’s been great when fit and offers something different (9 G/A in 2022/23) to Tonali or Joelinton.

 

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Verdict – Keep

 

Sean Longstaff

 

Position: Central Midfield

Age: 26

Contract exp.: 2025

 

A valuable squad player, Longstaff’s shown not only he can fill in for an extended spell (36 games played), but that he’s a goal threat too (8 G/A). For a club struggling for depth, it’s a no-brainer.   

 

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Verdict – Keep

 

Lewis Miley

 

Position: Central Midfield

Age: 18

Contract exp.: 2029

 

Miley, who exploded onto the scene against Chelsea in November, is another do everything midfielder. Still only 18, he’s shown he’s more than capable of success within the Premier league and definitely should be given more starting minutes this season.

 

 

Verdict – Keep

 

Wingers

 

Anthony Gordon

 

Position: Left Winger

Age: 23

Contract exp.: 2026

 

He’s contributed 21 G/A this season from across the front 3. Linked with a move to Liverpool, Newcastle needs to do all they can to keep him.

 

 

Verdict – Keep

 

Harvey Barnes

 

Position: Left Winger

Age: 26

Contract exp.: 2028

 

His debut season didn’t go as planned, given the emergence of Gordon, but he still led the club in progressive carries per 90 (5.04) and chipped in with 8 goal contributions. The imminent sale of Miguel Almiron likely opens up the starting spot opposite Gordon, something Barnes is likely to lock down for years to come.

 

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Verdict – Keep

Ryan Fraser

 

Position: Left Winger

Age: 30

Contract exp.: 2025

 

The diminutive winger never really convinced in black and white, and despite being offered a lifeline with the return of former manager Eddie Howe, he hasn’t yet managed to make his mark at Newcastle.

 

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Verdict – Sell

 

Garang Kuol

 

Position: Left Winger

Age: 19

Contract exp.: 2026

 

Only just signed from the A- League, he needs to get minutes in order to cope with the step up from Australia to European football — a loan would be the prudent decision.

 

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Verdict – keep and loan out

 

Miguel Almirón

 

Position: Right Winger

Age: 30

Contract exp.: 2026

 

Rumoured to be on his way to Saudi Arabia, he’s been a valuable servant to the club but if they can get the right price they need to sell. If not for the PSR issues, Almiron should be staying given he’s only one season removed from contributing 14 G/A. Sadly, PSR exists and if Newcastle can get the right price and find a suitable replacement for cheaper, the writing is on the wall.

 

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Verdict – Sell for the right price

 

Jacob Murphy

 

Position: Right Winger

Age: 29

Contract exp.: 2027

 

The man you forgot still played on Tyneside, he’s spent another season being the perfect utility man. Murphy has played every position on the right side with minimal fuss, something Newcastle need more than ever given their current situation. 

 

 

Verdict – Keep

 

Strikers

 

Alexander Isak

 

Position: Centre-Forward

Age: 24

Contract exp.: 2028

 

Obviously, you want to keep him, he’s a superstar in the making. But given the PSR issues, if someone makes a big enough offer it should be at least considered.

 

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Verdict – Keep, unless someone offers an other-worldly offer

Callum Wilson

 

Position: Centre-Forward

Age: 32

Contract exp.: 2025

 

He’s getting old and he’s struggling to stay fit (11 games) but he’s still bagged 9 goals and is only one season removed from an 18-goal haul. Keep him, see if he can stay fit. If he does well as a backup, then extend him.

 

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Verdict – Keep, wait and see before extending

 

Overall verdict

 

So where does that leave us? Well, the future might not be ideal, but it’s not THAT bad. Sure, PSR is always lurking and the club is operating with a pretty thin squad, not nearly deep enough to fulfill their Champions League aspirations. However, the above exercise shows they’ve got around £40m worth of talent to sell (per Transfermarkt) without impacting their matchday squad too much, this could increase massively if they sell one of their stars. 

 

When you consider the fact that they’re:

 

  • Set at a lot of key positions like central midfield, full back and winger, 
  • Have a manager whose got a proven track record of developing talent
  • Have a scouting department that can clearly spot a rough diamond
  • Not playing European football this season

 

And actually you start to realise that with 3-4 quality additions and a bit of luck, they might be able to supercharge their rebuild fairly quickly. But where do they need to make signings? Well:

 

  • At least one starting level RIGHT-FOOTED centre back
  • At least one backup winger, someone who can start if they need to
  • At 3rd striker that’s capable of filling in for Callum Wilson if he’s injured.

 

While the centre back needs to be a starter, they have the luxury of being able to develop the other signings as the season progresses, something we’ve seen Howe do masterfully in the past. Last season might not have been what the Toon Army wanted, but fast forward to the end of this season and it might turn out to have been a blessing in disguise. 

 

By: Kieran Alder / @The_Own_Goal

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA / Getty Images

 

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